[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230609
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 23W/24W, from 17N southward, moving W
10 knots. Upper level SE wind flow is moving through the area of
the tropical wave, from 10N to 20N between Africa and 24W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers cover the areas that are from 10N to
23N...within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within
400 nm to the west of the tropical wave. The upper level wind
that is moving across the area of the tropical wave is easterly.
The upper level wind flow eventually becomes anticyclonic. An
anticyclonic circulation center is just to the NE of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 11N
southward, moving W from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: it
is most probable that any significant nearby precipitation may
be connected more to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W/56W from 15N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N to 15N...within 450 nm to the east
of the tropical wave, and within 540 nm to the west of the
tropical wave. Moderate NE winds are within 600 nm to the west
of the tropical wave, from 11N to 22N. The sea heights range
from 5 feet to 7 feet, from 07N to 18N within 90 nm to the east
of the tropical wave and within 150 nm to the west of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
Leone near 11N15W, to 07N20W, to 06N27W. The ITCZ is along
06N27W 06N35W 05N40W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 03N to 07N between 26W and 34W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 06N between
09W and 20W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere,
from 16N southward from 60W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A squall line extends from the Atlantic Ocean about 220 nm to
the east of NE Florida, across Florida along 28N, and across the
northern one-third of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N to 28N between
88W and 94W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 31N78W in
the Atlantic Ocean, to 25N81W in Florida. A cold front passes
through SW Georgia to southern Mississippi. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues to south central Texas, and
eventually to the Far West of Texas.

A diurnal surface trough is inland in Mexico, along 18N/19N
between 89W in the Yucatan Peninsula through the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to 101W. Precipitation: numerous
strong is inland in Mexico, from 16N to 19N between 95W and 101W.

The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet from 22N to
28N between 88W and 93W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5
feet from 21N northward from 93W westward. The sea heights range
from 1 foot to 3 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate-to-fresh SE winds are within 170 nm to the north of the
Yucatan Peninsula between 86W and 89W.

A shearline extends across the northern part of the basin along
28N. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 26N and
east of 90W, including in the Florida Peninsula, with the
shearline. It is possible that the wind speeds and the sea
heights may be higher near the thunderstorms
overnight. A frontal boundary extends across the Gulf states
behind the shearline. The front will drift eastward, exiting
from the basin within the next 48 hours. A surface ridge from
the Atlantic Ocean prevails elsewhere, and will dominate the Gulf
region during the next several days. Pulsing fresh E to SE winds
are expected each night into the early morning hours, to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula, through Thursday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is near SE Cuba and the Windward
Passage, toward eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
Caribbean Sea from 68W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N74W in Colombia, through 09N80W,
beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 74W
westward, in the Caribbean Sea. Scattered strong is along 10N,
between Lake Maracaibo and the border of Colombia.

The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 70W eastward,
from 4 feet to 6 feet between 70W and 80W, and from 4 feet to 5
feet from 80W westward. Strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the
coast of Colombia between 73W and 75W. Fresh-to-strong NE and E
winds are within 300 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
between 70W and 77W, and in the Gulf of Venezuela; and within 60
nm of the northern coast of Hispaniola between 70W and the
northern part of the Windward Passage. Strong easterly winds are
within 180 nm to the north of Honduras from 84W westward.

The Atlantic Ocean high pressure, and the lower surface pressure
in Colombia, continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in
the south central Caribbean Sea, mainly at night through
Wednesday night. Pulsing fresh to strong E to SE winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras, at night through Wed night. An
active 56W tropical wave is forecast to approach the Lesser
Antilles by Thursday, and move across those islands on Friday,
enhancing convection, winds, and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 33N41W 31N43W 27N43W 23N41W. An upper
level trough is about 345 nm to the NW of the surface trough.
The upper level trough is moving toward the area of the surface
trough, and it appears to be not connected to the surface
trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward
between the surface trough and 60W. Isolated moderate is within
300 nm to the east of the surface trough from 23N northward.

A surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure center that
is near 29N56W, to 29N72W, across Florida, to 28N/29N along 86W
in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gentle-to-moderate NE winds cover the areas that are from 07N to
15N between 30W and 40W, and from 07N to 17N between 41W and
53W. Moderate NE winds cover the areas that are from 18N
northward between 20W and 30W, and elsewhere from 25N southward
between 55W and 67W. The sea heights were ranging from 4 feet to
6 feet from 20N northward between 20W and 30W, and from 4 feet
to 5 feet, elsewhere away from the tropical waves.

Fresh S to SW winds will continue across the waters off NE
Florida through tonight, in advance of a frontal boundary that
is in the SE of the United States. A surface ridge will continue
to dominate the area during the next several days. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night in the
Hispaniola adjacent waters, including in the approaches to the
Windward Passage, through Friday night.

$$
mt/ERA
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