[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 181508
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-182315-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL032021
1008 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Mobile Central, Mobile
      Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Coastal

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 340 miles south-southwest of Mobile AL or about 360 miles
      southwest of Pensacola FL
    - 26.5N 91.1W
    - Storm Intensity 35 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is becoming better organized over the
central Gulf of Mexico this morning. This system will continue to move
north toward the southeast Louisiana coastline today. The storm is expected
to become a Tropical Depression or Storm later today or tonight before
making landfall. Most of the impacts with this system will occur well
east of the center over our area. The primary threat will be the potential
for heavy rainfall across coastal portions of the area beginning this
afternoon and spreading inland across the rest of the area tonight. Heavy
rainfall will likely persist through Saturday night with rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts in excess of 12 inches.
Tropical storm force winds will be possible along the immediate coastline of
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle with gusts up to 50 mph possible.
Elsewhere, strong gusty winds just below Tropical Storm force will be
possible. Along with the rain and wind, a couple of tornadoes will be
possible tonight into Saturday. Minor coastal flooding of 1 to 3 feet is
expected along areas of Mobile Bay, Coastal Alabama, and coastal portions
of the western Florida Panhandle. This will include local bays and sounds
along the western Florida Panhandle coastline. Dangerous surf and rip
currents will also continue to impact area beaches.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi..
Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential
impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south central
Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.. Potential impacts
include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
      with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
      surge water covers the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
      in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
    - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
      and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$
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