[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jun 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area over
the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas has become a
little better organized since yesterday. This system will move
little tonight, and little if any development is expected during
that time due to interaction with land. However, the low should
begin to move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves
across the western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on
Thursday, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
during the next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect
portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information. This area has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation in the next 48 hrs. Please refer to the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the NWS National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details on this disturbance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 37W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 04N to 13N between 32W and 40W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 57W from
18N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 18N between 53W and 60W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 79W
from 18N near Jamaica southward across Panama, moving W at 5 to
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on the western side
Of the trough axis south of 14N between 79W to 83W, near the
coast of Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 11N16W
to 08N22W. Segments of the ITCZ are analyzed from 08N22W to
09N31W, then resumes near 07N40W to the coast of Brazil near
03N50W. Scattered showers prevail near the monsoon trough and ITCZ
south of 10N and east of 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a
broad low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough is analyzed from 26N89W to 20N93W. Aided by
upper-level divergent flow, scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is occurring across the southern half of the basin
mainly south of 27N. To the northeast, a frontal boundary extends
along 30N and east of 87W across the Florida Panhandle. Scattered
showers prevail along the boundary and over the Florida
Peninsula. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are noted in the
southeastern Gulf and west to southwestern flow in the far
northeast Gulf, with mainly moderate N to NE winds in the western
Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft through the basin.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure in the Bay of
Campeche will move little tonight, and little if any development
is expected during that time due to interaction with land.
However, the low should begin to move northward on Thu, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when
the low moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. This area has a
high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48
hours. High pressure is forecast to build in across the basin in
the wake of the low later in the upcoming weekend into early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean while
another wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh tradewinds
across the eastern and central Caribbean with seas at 5 to 7 ft.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds are detected over the NW
Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 16N
from the Gulf of Honduras north to 22N in the Yucatan Channel and
west of 80W. An area of scattered showers prevails across the
eastern Caribbean mainly south of 15N and east of 65W.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

A diffluent flow aloft continues to support scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic mainly
west of 70W. To the east, a surface ridge dominates the entire
Atlantic forecast area anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High
located north of the area, near 33N43W. Fresh to locally strong S
winds are occurring north of 29N and west of 70W. Seas in this
same area are ranging between 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate south of 22N with seas at 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate trades prevail elsewhere with seas at 3 to 5 ft. An
exception is from 20N to 25N, south of the Canary Islands, between
the west coast of Africa and 28W where fresh to locally strong
N-NE winds persists due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across
the area will retreat eastward Thu enabling a trough to move
through the northern forecast waters through Fri. High pressure
will then return to the area this weekend into early next week.

$$

MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net