[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jun 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system will remain stationary through
tonight, and little if any development is expected during that
time due to interaction with land. The system should move
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico and adjacent waters during the next few days.
Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of the northern
Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information. This area has a high
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hrs. Please
refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the NWS
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more details
on this disturbance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 36W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 07N to 11N between 32W and 37W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave axis is analyzed along 56W from
18N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 52W and 59W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is analyzed along 78.5W
from 18N near Jamaica southward across Panama, moving W at 5 to
10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the tropical wave
at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 12N17W
to 09N24W. Segments of the ITCZ are analyzed from 09N24W to
06N31W, then resumes near 03N38W to the coast of Brazil at
02N51W. Scattered showers prevail near the monsoon trough south
of 10N and east of 26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a broad
low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche.

A surface trough is analyzed from 26N89W to 21N92W. Aided by
upper-level divergent flow, scattered moderate convection is
occurring across the southern half of the basin mainly south of
26N. To the northeast, a frontal boundary extends along 30N and
east of 90W. Scattered showers prevail south of the boundary and
over the Florida Peninsula. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are
noted in the eastern Gulf, with mainly moderate N to NE winds in
the western Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft through the basin.

For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure in the Bay of
Campeche will move little through tonight. The disturbance
should begin to move northward on Thu, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by late Thu or on Fri when the low moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico. This area has a high chance of
tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean while
another wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the
Tropical Waves section above for details.

The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
tradewinds across the central Caribbean with seas at 5 to 8 ft.
Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are
detected over the NW Caribbean, except over the Gulf of Honduras,
where locally fresh winds are noted. Scattered moderate
convection is noted north of 18N and west of 80W to the southern
coast of Cuba between 81W and 84W. An area of scattered showers
prevails across the southeastern Caribbean mainly south of 15N
and east of 70W.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pair of tropical waves are moving westward between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

A diffluent flow aloft continues to support scattered moderate
convection over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic mainly
west of 70W. To the east, a surface ridge dominates the entire
Atlantic forecast area anchored by the Bermuda-Azores High
located north of the area. Fresh to locally strong S winds are
occurring north of 29N and west of 70W. Seas in this same area
are ranging between 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades
dominate south of 22N with seas at 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
trades prevail elsewhere with seas at 3 to 5 ft. An exception is
from 20N to 25N, south of the Canary Islands, between the west
coast of Africa and 28W where fresh to locally strong N-NE winds
persists due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 6 to
9 ft in this area.

For the forecast west of 65W, the ridge of high pressure across
the area will retreat eastward Thursday enabling a trough to move
through the northern forecast waters through Fri. High pressure
will then return to the area this weekend.

$$
ERA
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