[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0720 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Bill is centered near 38.5N 67.2W at 15/0900 UTC
moving NE at 27 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Bill is
a sheared tropical storm and scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 37N to 41N between 62W and 69W. Bill is
forecast to maintain strength through the afternoon, then is
forecast to weaken by late tonight, becoming extratropical by Wed
afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 24W from
17N southward including across the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. A 1010 mb surface low is analyzed ahead of the
tropical wave near 08N25W. There is no significant convection
noted with the tropical wave or low, however scattered to
numerous showers are evident from 02N to 17N between 19W and 29W.
This area has a low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone
over the next five days.

The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 44W from
04N to 19N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. There is no significant
convection noted with this tropical wave, however scattered to
numerous showers are evident from 12N to 21N between 38W and 47W.

The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from 17N
southward to across central Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20 kt.
There is no significant convection noted over water with this
tropical wave, however deep convection is occurring over portions
of Venezuela.

The axis of an exiting Caribbean tropical wave is near 89W across
western Belize from 18N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Deep
convection is not occurring right near the wave axis in the NW
Caribbean, however there is a significant band of scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N to 19N between
83W and 87W, including over eastern Honduras and Nicaragua, and
also from 10N to 13N between 75W and 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near Guinea-
Bissau to 12N16W to 06N39W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N41W
to the NE coast of Brazil near 04N51W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between
09W and 19W. Similar convection is noted in a band within 105 nm
north of a line from 12N43W to 08N50W to 08N55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1009 mb is nearly stationary and
centered near 19N95W over the Bay of Campeche, accompanied by a
surface trough extending from 22N98W near Tampico, Mexico through
the low to 18N91W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted in the Bay of Campeche south of 21N/22N. Fresh
to strong NW winds are noted west of the trough, with moderate to
fresh E-SE winds east of the trough. Otherwise, a broad and
weakening ridge extends from near the Straits of Florida to the
lower Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are noted across the SE and NE Gulf, including across portions of
the Florida Peninsula, associated with a mid-level trough. Light
to gentle anticyclonic winds were noted by earlier ASCAT data
north of 24N and west of 87W, with moderate to locally fresh winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3 ft or less across the basin, except locally
4 to 5 ft west of the trough.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging over the central
Gulf of Mexico will shift east through mid-week. Gradual
development of a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche
is possible during the next couple of days while it meanders near
the coast of Mexico. The system should begin to move northward by
midweek, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the
week when the low moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for information on any
significant convection.

Fresh to strong trades continue in the S central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except gentle E-SE winds in
the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across
the basin, except locally 7 ft in the S central Caribbean, and 2
to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean south of 11N.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia
will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through the upcoming weekend.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except light to
gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will
cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean
at the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Bill located well north of the discussion area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend across the SW N
Atlantic west of 70W, including across the central and NW Bahamas,
and the Florida Peninsula. Ridging dominates the basin, anchored
by the Azores High north of the area. Moderate to fresh southerly
return flow is noted north of 27N and west of 65W, with moderate
to locally fresh E-SE flow south of 27N and west of 55W. Moderate
to locally fresh trades prevail north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough
to around 25N, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
elsewhere. An exception is west of the African coast south of the
Canary Islands where a tight pressure gradient continues to
support fresh to locally strong N-NE winds from 18N to 28N east
of 26W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the Atlantic waters, except 6
to 9 ft seas in the area of fresh to strong winds.

A large area of Saharan dust covers the tropical Atlantic
westward to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and
Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 27N
will continue to weaken and sink southward today. Winds will be
fresh to strong north of 28N through mid-week as a pair of cold
fronts move by north of the area.

$$
Lewitsky
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