[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Bill, at 15/0300 UTC, is near 36.7N
69.8W. BILL is moving toward the NE, 55 degrees, 20 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. BILL
is about 291 nm/540 km to the ENE of Cape Hatteras in North
Carolina. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from
135 nm to 315 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please, refer
to the latest watches and warnings that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details. Please, refer to the latest watches and warnings that
are issued by the Ocean Prediction Center, at
www.ocean.weather.gov, for marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21W/22W from 17N
southward, moving W near 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and
within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Some development
of this system is possible during the next few days, before a
combination of dry air aloft and strong upper level winds limits
any chance of formation, while the wave is in the central
tropical Atlantic Ocean late this week.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 42W/43W and from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 90 nm on either
side of the line that runs from 14N along the tropical wave, to
10N48W and to 09N55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 17N
southward, moving W from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 19N southward
between 58W and 70W. Scattered strong in individual clusters is
in Venezuela and Guyana, from 02N to 08N between Guyana and 68W.

A tropical wave is along 88W, in the Gulf of Honduras, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. The monsoon trough extends
from Colombia near 11N73W, through 81W in Panama from 08N to
09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, to 14N94W in the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 160 nm of the coast of eastern Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 75W westward in the
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that
is near 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from the 1010 mb low pressure
center, to 04N26W 01N34W 03N45W. All the precipitation is more
related to the tropical waves.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough starts at the coast of Mexico near 22N98W, and
it continues to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near
20N95W, reaching 18N91W in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm on
either side of the line that runs from NW Guatemala, toward the
NNW, for 240 nm. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 23N southward from 88W westward, in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Gradual development of this low pressure
center is possible during the next couple of days, while it
meanders near the coast of Mexico. The low pressure center
should begin to move northward by midweek. It is likely for a
tropical depression to form late in the week, when the low
pressure center moves across the central or northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible in parts of Central America,
and in parts of southern Mexico, during the next several days.
It is possible that heavy rains may begin to impact parts of the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday. Please, consult all
weather bulletins from your local meteorological service for
more information.

An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost part of
the Gulf of Mexico, including on top of Florida. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from 25N
northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally
strong, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward in
the Atlantic Ocean, crossing Florida, and continuing to 92W in
the Gulf of Mexico.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain in the central Gulf of
Mexico into mid-week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds across the basin. Broad low pressure in the
Bay of Campeche should begin to move northward by midweek. It is
likely for a tropical depression to form late in the week, when
the low pressure center moves across the central or northwestern
Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mostly fresh winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, in
the central Caribbean Sea from 18N southward, and within 180 nm
to the north of the coast of Honduras. The sea heights are
ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet in the south central Caribbean
Sea, with 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 11N73W, through
81W in Panama from 08N to 09N, beyond southern Costa Rica, to
14N94W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. A tropical wave is along
88W, in the Gulf of Honduras, from 18N southward, moving
westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 160 nm of the coast of eastern Honduras. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 75W westward in the
Caribbean Sea.

A ridge of high pressure, to the north of the basin, combined
with lower pressure in Central America and in Colombia, will
support pulsing fresh to strong trades in the S central
Caribbean Sea, and in the Gulf of Honduras, through the upcoming
weekend. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except
for light to gentle south of 11N. An eastern Caribbean Sea
tropical wave will cross the central Caribbean Sea mid-week,
then the western Caribbean Sea at the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is moving through the easternmost part of
the Gulf of Mexico, including on top of Florida. Precipitation:
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the Bahamas from 25N
northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally
strong, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center that
is near 37N32W, through 31N49W, to 28N59W 25N69W, and to the
Straits of Florida.

Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 22N and west of
40W, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds noted elsewhere
west of 35W. A tight pressure gradient, that is to the west of
the coast of Africa to the south of the Canary Islands, supports
strong NE winds from 16N to 28N from 25W eastward. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, except for the range from 7
feet to 10 feet in the area of strong winds.

Saharan dust has been covering the tropical Atlantic Ocean,
westward to the eastern Caribbean Sea. The GOES Geocolor imagery
and the Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS have been indicating this
feature.

A ridge of high pressure along 27N will continue to weaken, and
to move southward tonight. The wind speeds will be fresh to
strong north of 28N into mid-week, as two cold fronts move by
north of the area.

$$
mt/jl
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