[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is mostly inland in Africa, along 12W/13W, from
16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 15N
within 700 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Some of this
precipitation also is related to the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
any nearby precipitation is also part of the monsoon trough
precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
any nearby precipitation is also part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered strong is within 270 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 09N to 13N, near the islands of the SE Caribbean Sea.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from SE Cuba southward. The monsoon trough passes through
10N/11N between 73W/74W in Colombia, through northern Costa
Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The eastern Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough eventually reaches a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N94W. Scattered to numerous strong is
along the monsoon trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea
along 79W, at along the NE coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea from 15N southward from 73W westward. Scattered to numerous
strong in clusters is in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal
waters of Central America between 82W and 87W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N24W, 09N30W, 08N40W, and to 07N44W.
The ITCZ continues from 07N44W, to 07N55W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 15N within
700 nm to the west of the 12W/13W tropical wave. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward, especially from 13W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
Mexico and Central America, and the Caribbean Sea, from the
78W/79W tropical wave westward.

A 1010 mb low pressure center is near 21N96W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 23N96W, to the
1010 mb low pressure center, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong is in the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Scattered moderate to
widely scattered strong is in parts of Guatemala, and elsewhere
in Mexico between 90W and 100W. Some slow development is
possible during the next few days, while the low pressure center
meanders near the coast of Mexico. It is possible that a
tropical depression may form late in the week, while the system
begins to move slowly northward. Heavy rainfall is possible in
parts of Central America and in southern Mexico, during the next
several days. Please, consult all bulletins and watches and
warnings, from your local meteorological service for more
information.

An outflow boundary extends from the Florida Panhandle to SE
Louisiana, to north central Louisiana. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward in
the Gulf of Mexico and inland, between 86W and 95W in east Texas.

A surface trough extends from south central Georgia, to 28N84W
in the Gulf of Mexico, and to 25N86W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the Gulf of Mexico and parts
of Florida, from 24N northward between 80W and 86W.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of
Mexico through the early part of the week, supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough
of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche has a potential to
slowly develop during the next few days while the system
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
could form late in the week while the system begins to move
slowly northward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
the Windward Passage westward. An upper level trough extends
from Hispaniola to northern Colombia/NW Venezuela.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 18N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from SE Cuba southward. The monsoon trough passes through
10N/11N between 73W/74W in Colombia, through northern Costa
Rica, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The eastern Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough eventually reaches a 1011 mb low pressure
center that is near 13N94W. Scattered to numerous strong is
along the monsoon trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea
along 79W, at along the NE coast of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea from 15N southward from 73W westward. Scattered to numerous
strong in clusters is in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal
waters of Central America between 82W and 87W.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and sea heights ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet, are in the south central sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

A ridge of high pressure north of the basin, combined with lower
pressure in Central America and Colombia, will support pulsing
fresh to strong trades in the S central Caribbean Sea and in the
Gulf of Honduras through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will
prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A
tropical wave will move into the E Caribbean Sea, tonight, and
cross the central Caribbean mid-week, then the western Caribbean
Sea at the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low pressure center is off the coast of North Carolina
and South Carolina. A stationary front extends from the 1008 mb
low pressure center, along 31N/32N, through the coastal sections
of Georgia, and northwestward, inland. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the areas that are
from the Bahamas and 23N northward from 74W westward. This
system is forecast to move northeastward for the next few days,
near the Gulf Stream waters, which may allow for some tropical
development to occur, while it moves away from the United
States. The low pressure center should be in the cold waters
that are to the south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its
development chances.

A surface ridge passes through 31N40W to 27N49W, to 26N64W, to
27N75W.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: strong NE winds, and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, cover the area
that is from 10N to 14N between 54W and 58W. Strong N-to-NE
winds, and sea heights ranging from 7 feet to 9 feet, cover the
area that is from 20N to 25N between Africa and 24W.

A ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward and
weaken tonight. Winds will be fresh north of 28N through the
early part of the week as pair of cold fronts move by north of
the area, except locally strong Tue through Wed.

$$
mt/jl
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