[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132303
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jun 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed along 14W and inland
over west Africa on the 18Z surface analysis. Latest satellite
imagery reveals scattered to numerous moderate and isolated
strong convection near the west coast of Africa from 03N to 13N
between 06W and 18W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 31W and from 17N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
near the southern part of the wave within 70 miles of 07N25W.

The axis another tropical wave is near 40W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted near the southern end of the wave from 02N to
07N between 31W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W from 15N southward,
moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
north of Guyana from 08N to 10N between 52W and 58W. This
tropical wave is forecasted to reach the Windward Islands this
evening, increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
there.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 81W from 18N southward,
moving W at near 5 kt. Isolated showers are noted across the
Colombian Basin along both sides of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
11N16W and continues to 07N44W. The ITCZ then continues from
07N44W to 08N54W. Aside from the convection described in the
tropical waves section above, scattered showers are noted along
the monsoon trough between 25W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad low pressure area of 1010 mb is centered over the Bay of
Campeche near 21N96W. A surface trough extends northwestward
from 18N94W through the low to 24N97W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 23N and west of 91W.
The overall system has become somewhat better organized since
yesterday. Slow development is possible during the next few days
while the system meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a
tropical depression could form late in the week while the system
begins to move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and
southern Mexico during the next several days. Please consult
products from your local meteorological service for more
information.

A 1016 mb high is centered near 28N94W. To the east, a surface
trough curves northeastward from the NE Gulf at 26N85W across
central Florida to just east of Georgia coast at 32N781W. Aided
by divergent flow aloft, scattered moderate convection is seen
south of New Orleans within 50 miles of 28N88W, and from west and
central Cuba northeastward to the Bahamas. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds are noted over the NW Gulf north of 27N, with
gentle to moderate westerly winds across E Gulf. Moderate E to SE
winds are present south of 27N, including the Gulf of Campeche.
Seas are 1 to 3 ft are across the basin, except higher in and
near any convection.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the
central Gulf of Mexico through early week supporting mainly
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to occasional strong
winds in the S central Caribbean and north of Colombia with seas
at 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere with
seas of 2 to 4 ft. Convergent southeasterly winds are coupling
with upper-level diffluence to trigger scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras extending
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure north of the basin
combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh
to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras into Thu night. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave
will move into the E Caribbean late tonight and cross the central
Caribbean during midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough curves northeastward from the NE Gulf at 26N85W
across central Florida to just east of Georgia coast at 32N781W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up over northern
Florida and westward into the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, high
pressure ridging dominates the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high
center over the Azores near 40N29W, extending west-southwest
through 31N47W to the northeastern Caribbean and the southeast
Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds are found under the ridge axis,
with moderate to fresh winds north of 27N and west of 60W, as
well as south of 20N and west of 40W, and east of 50W. An upper-
level low near 30N50W is triggering scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 42W and 51W.
Tightening pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower
pressure over northern Africa is producing fresh to strong
northeast winds south of 28N and east of 27W near and south of
the Canary Islands with seas at 6 to 8 ft. Seas are mainly 4 to 6
ft east of the Bahamas across the open waters of the tropical
Atlantic.

A large area of Sahara dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward
to eastern Caribbean. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and Sahara
Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward through tonight. Winds will fresh north of
28N through the early part of the week as pair of cold fronts
move by north of the area, except locally strong Tue through Wed.

$$
ERA
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