[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 140540
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of
Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow
development of this disturbance is possible during the next few
days while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical
depression could form late in the week when the system begins to
move slowly northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during
the next several days.  Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is located about
100 miles southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.  Satellite and
radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms have become a
little more concentrated near the center this morning. Furthermore,
recent satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate
that the circulation has become better defined, although the system
is still interacting with a frontal boundary. The low is forecast to
move northeastward for the next few days while passing over or near
the warm Gulf Stream today and Tuesday, which could allow for some
tropical development to occur while the system moves away from the
United States.  The low should move over colder waters south of Nova
Scotia by early Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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