[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 132316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche
is associated with a broad low pressure area, and the system has
changed little in organization since earlier today.  Some slow
development is possible during the next few days while the low
meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression could
form late in the week while the system begins to move slowly
northward.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next several days.  Please consult products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 150 miles
south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to
move northeastward for the next few days near the Gulf Stream
waters,  which could allow for some tropical development to occur
while it moves away from the United States.  The low should be over
cold waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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