[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave,
and from 04N to 11N within 270 nm to the west of the tropical
wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough between 36W and 39W, and from 60 nm to 240 nm
to the west of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere from 01N to 08N between 31W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 16N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 18N and the
western parts of Jamaica southward, moving westward 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from SE Cuba southward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N30W, to 07N47W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N47W, to 07N58W at the coast of Guyana.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough between 14W and 17W in Africa.
Scattered strong is from 03N to 08N to 10N between 10W and 15W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward, especially from 10W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
Mexico and Central America, and the Caribbean Sea, from the
78W/79W tropical wave westward.

A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 21N95W in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 19N91W, to the
1008 mb low pressure center, to 23N97W. Precipitation: Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally
strong rainshowers, are from 25N southward. The eastern Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough is passing beyond southern Nicaragua, to
13N91W, to a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 15N97W.
Scattered to numerous strong is in Guatemala, and in the
countries that surround Guatemala. Numerous strong also is and
has been in parts of western Nicaragua, in southern Honduras,
and in eastern El Salvador. Slow development is possible during
the next several days, while this system moves slowly and
erratically. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
in this area by the middle of the next week. Heavy rainfall is
possible in parts of Central America and southern Mexico, during
the next several days. Please, consult all bulletins and watches
and warnings, from your local meteorological service for more
information.

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Straits, to a 1014 mb
high pressure center that is near 27N90W, to the coastal plains
of the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

Weak high pressure ridging will remain over the central Gulf of
Mexico through early next week supporting mainly gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin. A trough of low
pressure that has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Slow
development is possible over the next several days while this
system moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical depression
could form in this area by the middle of next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
Mexico and Central America, and the Caribbean Sea, from the
78W/79W tropical wave westward.

An upper level trough extends from Hispaniola, southwestward, to
the border of Colombia and Panama. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is in Hispaniola, and in its coastal waters.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W/79W, from 18N and the
western parts of Jamaica southward, moving westward 10 knots to
15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm to
the west of the tropical wave from SE Cuba southward. The
monsoon trough passes through 11N73W in Colombia, through
11N80W, beyond southern Nicaragua, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough is passing
beyond southern Nicaragua, to 13N91W, to a 1007 mb low pressure
center that is near 15N97W. Scattered to numerous strong is in
Guatemala, and in the countries that surround Guatemala.
Numerous strong also is and has been in parts of western
Nicaragua, in southern Honduras, and in eastern El Salvador.

Fresh to strong easterly winds, and sea heights ranging from 7
feet to 8 feet, are in the south central sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

A ridge of high pressure along 28N combined with lower pressure
over Central America and Colombia will support fresh to strong
trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through
Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except
light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave will move into the
E Caribbean Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge passes through 31N47W to 26N56W, to 25N69W,
toward the Straits of Florida.

Scatterometer wind data and sea heights: moderate-to-fresh NE
winds cover the area from 10N to 20N between 44W and 54W.  The
sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet in that area.

A ridge of high pressure along 28N will sink southward this
weekend. Winds will be moderate to fresh north of 28N through
early next week as pair of cold fronts move by north
of the area, except fresh to strong Tue through Wed.

$$
mt/jl
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