[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 13 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave extends along 24W from 04N-18N.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis at
this time.

The axis a tropical wave is along 34W from 15N southward, moving
W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
10N between 32W and 38W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 52W from 15N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to
14N between 52W and 57W. This tropical wave is forecasted to
reach the Windward Islands near late Sunday, increasing the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 77W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
in the vicinity of the wave mainly affecting the land areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near
13N17W and continues through 07N28W to end near 04N38W. The ITCZ
then continues from 04N38W to end near 06N50W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section above,
scattered showers are noted south of 10N between 25W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad 1008 mb surface low is centered over the Bay of Campeche
near 20N94W. A surface trough extends from 22N97W to 19N92W.
Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 25N and west of
87W. Slow development of this system is possible over the next
several days as it moves slowly and erratically, and a tropical
depression could form in this area by the middle of next week.
Due to the slow motion, regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is possible over portions of Central America and Mexico. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service for more
information. Earlier scatterometer data depicted an area of
fresh to strong winds in the area of deep convection in the Bay
of Campeche. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails with light to
gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas are 4-6 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over
the central Gulf of Mexico through early next week supporting
mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across
the central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate winds across
the remainder of the basin. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the S central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 3 ft or less in the lee of
Cuba and south of 11N.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over the
Gulf of Honduras, triggered by convergent southeasterly winds and
enhanced by divergent flow aloft. Mid to upper-level cloudiness
associated with an upper-level trough entering into the Caribbean
Sea to eastern Dominican Republic is seen over eastern Caribbean
and the Leeward Islands.

For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure along 28N combined
with lower pressure over Central America and Colombia will support
fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail
elsewhere, except light to gentle south of 11N. A tropical wave
will move into the E Caribbean Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across the
Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic in association with a
surface trough that extends from 30N79W to 28N82W. Elsewhere,
high pressure ridging dominates the basin anchored by a 1025 mb
high center over the Azores at 34N38W, extending west-southwest
through 29N55W to southern Bahamas. Fresh to strong northeast
winds are found south of the high between 20N and 30N including
the Canary Islands, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Light to
gentle anticyclonic winds are noted under the ridge, with seas 3
to 5 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW flow is present off
the coast of northern Florida.

A large area of Sahara dust covers the tropical Atlantic westward
to near the Windward Islands. Both the GOES Geocolor imagery and
Sahara Dust imagery from CIMSS indicate this feature.

For the forecast west of 65W, a ridge of high pressure along 28N
will sink southward through Sunday. Winds will increase up to a
fresh breeze north of 28N through the weekend as a cold front
moves by north of the area. Winds may again strengthen to fresh
north of 28N on Tue and Wed as another cold front moves by north
of the area.

$$
ERA
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