[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W from 11N southward,
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the wave axis mainly S of 05N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 48W from 14N southward,
moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N-09N between 46W-53W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the wave
axis mainly affecting Venezuela and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
11N15W to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 02N30W to coastal Brazil
near 03N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted
along the boundaries, with strongest activity prevailing within
the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the north central Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough extends from
near 28N89W to 25N92W. At this time, scattered showers are noted
in the vicinity of the trough and over the eastern Gulf enhanced
by a diffluent flow aloft. Latest scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh winds across the basin, with strongest winds
noted within 100 nm north of the northern Yucatan peninsula
coastline, and north of 27N between 88W-91W.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico will continue through Sun.
Otherwise, high pressure over the Atlantic will cause moderate to
locally fresh SE winds in the Gulf through early next week.
Fresh easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan
Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Winds across the
basin will diminish to gentle to moderate E to SE by the middle
of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the southern
portion of the basin. Please refer to the section above for
details.

A moderate pressure gradient across the basin is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, mainly
within 90 nm north of the Colombian/Venezuelan coasts. There is
also an area of fresh to strong winds prevailing over the gulf of
Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Seas range
from 4-6 across most of the basin except the south central
portion, where 6-8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the
south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Mon night. Fresh to strong E winds will also pulse in the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and evening hours
through Mon night. Moderate to fresh tradewinds elsewhere will
prevail through early next week. Winds will diminish to gentle
to moderate by midweek. An increase in showers and thunderstorms
can be expected in the eastern Caribbean through Tue due to the
combination of a quasi-stationary upper-level trough and tropical
waves traversing the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores high
dominates the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to fresh NE winds in
the eastern Atlantic veer to mainly E in the central Atlantic
and then to SE in the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient
off the coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara supports strong
winds from 19N to 24N between 17W and 21W with 8-9 ft seas. Seas
are 5-7 ft elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft seas west of
78W.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north
of the area through early next week. This will support moderate
to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters
through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate as
the high pressure weakens. Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N
of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage during the late
afternoon and evening hours through Mon night.

For the forecast east of 65W, the weakening Bermuda-Azores high
will allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed.
Likewise, seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the
tropical N Atlantic by Mon.

$$
ERA
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