[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 6 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 25W from 10N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 04N between 22W and 27W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W from 14N southward,
moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 43W and 50W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W from 14N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted 100 nm on either side of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N16W SW to 02N22W. The ITCZ then extends from 02N27W to
coastal Brazil near 02N50W. Near the monsoon trough, an area of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 07N between 16W and 23W. Scattered showers are noted north
of the ITCZ between 34W to 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

In the north central Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough extends from
near 28N89W to 24N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is occurring with this trough from the Bay of Campeche
to the northern Gulf coast E of 94W. Elsewhere, high pressure
ridging prevails, supporting gentle SE to S winds across the
Gulf. The exception is just north of the Yucatan, where the
latest scatterometer data shows moderate SE winds. Seas are 1-3
ft throughout the basin except in the E Bay of Campeche, the
central Gulf, and the SE Gulf, where seas are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, an upper-level low over Texas continues to
enhance convection across the north-central Gulf. These storms
are capable of frequent lightning, brief gusts to gale-force, and
rough seas. These storms will likely diminish overnight with
another round of showers and thunderstorms expected on Sun across
the same region. Otherwise, high pressure ridging will persist
across the forecast waters through early next week. Fresh
easterly winds will pulse each night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula
in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE
winds are expected elsewhere through Wed with winds becoming
light to gentle by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is impacting the basin.
Please refer to the section above for details.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of the
area and low pressure to the south is supporting moderate to
fresh tradewinds in the central and eastern Caribbean, with 4-7
ft seas. From the coast of Colombia to 15N, seas are 6-8 ft. In
the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate tradewinds prevail with
2-5 ft seas north of 28N and 4-6 ft seas south of 28N. Scattered
moderate convection is present from the coast of Venezuela E of
the tropical wave across the Lesser Antilles and across the
southern coast of Cuba and Jamaica.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the
south central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sun
night. Locally strong winds will continue in the south central
Caribbean through Mon night. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge north
of the area will continue supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds
across much of the Caribbean through early next week. By midweek,
gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail. An increase in showers
and thunderstorms can be expected in the eastern Caribbean through
Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High dominates the
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Moderate NE winds in the eastern Atlantic
veer to mainly moderate E in the central Atlantic and then to
gentle SE in the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient off the
coast of Mauritania and Western Sahara supports strong winds from
19N to 24N between 17W and 21W with 8-9 ft seas. Seas are 5-7 ft
elsewhere in the basin, except for 3-6 ft seas west of 78W.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will prevail north
of the area through early next week. This will support moderate
to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the forecast waters
through Tue. By midweek, winds will become gentle to moderate.
Fresh to strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola during the
late afternoon and evening hours through Mon night.

For the forecast east of 65W, a weakening Bermuda-Azores High will
allow a relaxation of the trades from Sun through Wed. Likewise,
seas will diminish slightly to below 8 ft across the tropical N
Atlantic by Mon.

$$
Torres/Hagen
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