[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020520
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jun 02 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/23W, from 15N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. No
significant deep convective precipitation is directly related to
the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from
06N southward from the tropical wave eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 11N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is from 04N to 12N within 300 nm to the west
of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation
is inland in Venezuela from 05N to 08N between 64W and 66W, and
from 09N to 11N between 68W and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 07N20W, and 4N34W. No ITCZ is apparent at this
time. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 02N to 07N between 23W and 33W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface
trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to
NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to
30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and
in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic
center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico.

Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that have been
in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W westward, have been associated
with an outflow boundary, that is about 300 nm off the coasts of
Texas and Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from NE Florida, to the west central
Gulf of Mexico, to Mexico near 21N96W in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure ridging will prevail in the forecast waters this
week. Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off
the NW Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a diurnal trough.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface
trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to
NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to
30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and
in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic
center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W
in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in
the Caribbean Sea from 13N southward between 70W and 80W. Widely
scattered moderate to strong is within 300 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough between 73W and 78W in Colombia, and in NW
Venezuela between Lake Maracaibo and the border of Venezuela and
Colombia.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will
prevail through this evening, before diminishing. High pressure
will prevail in the central Atlantic Ocean through the week.
This will support moderate to fresh trade winds in much of the
basin through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the
coastal waters of Florida, the Bahamas, and Cuba, into the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 23N79W, just off the coast of Cuba. A surface
trough is along 30N79W, to the southernmost parts of Florida, to
NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong covers the areas that are from the Greater Antilles to
30N between 70W and 83W, in Florida, in the Caribbean Sea, and
in the Atlantic Ocean. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, within 360 nm of the cyclonic
center, in the NW semicircle, in the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front has moved into the area, passing through 31N24W, to
30N30W, and to 28N38W 29N44W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are from 27N northward from 45W eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 15N northward from 75W eastward. A 1029 mb high pressure
center is near 36N54W.

High pressure will prevail to the north of the area through the
remainder of the week. This will support moderate to locally
fresh E to SE trade winds in much of the forecast waters through
Sunday.

$$
mt/al
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