[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010855
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 08N between 15W and 20W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 14N southward,
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N20W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 13W,
from 01N to 06N between 20W and 30W, and from 05N to 09N between
30W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range west of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end of
the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area over the SW N Atlc. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over
the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 1-3 ft over
the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will
prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail
across the western Atlc through the week. This will support
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-4 ft are found west of
the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure near 36N52W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range west of 68W. East of 68W, seas are in the
4-7 ft range, except reaching 8 ft S of 12N and W of 40W in
decaying NE swell.

For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate
today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week.
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of
the forecast waters Wed through Sat.

$$
AL
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