[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010549
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 01 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16W/17W, from 17N
southward. The wave is moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. The
tropical wave is surrounded by ITCZ-related isolated moderate to
locally strong precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 62W, from 14N
southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation
is inland in Venezuela from 10N southward between the tropical
wave and 70W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ is along
07N19W 03N30W 05N32W 04N43W.  Precipitation: scattered strong is
from 04N to 05N between 11W and 13W, from 06N to 07N between 40W
and 41W, and from 05N to 07N between 48W and 50W. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is in the coastal waters of the SE U.S.A.,
from Georgia to Florida, to the NW half of Cuba, to Nicaragua.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from
88W eastward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, in nearly all of Florida, except for the
SE corner of the state, roughly from Lake Okeechobee southward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 85W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, to the north
central Gulf of Mexico, to Mexico near 19N96W in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week.
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW
Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a diurnal trough.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the coastal waters of the SE U.S.A.,
from Georgia to Florida, to the NW half of Cuba, to Nicaragua.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery from 13N northward from 80W westward. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is in the area of the upper level cyclonic
wind flow, mostly from Jamaica northward between Haiti and NW
Cuba.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N74W in Colombia, to 08N81W
in Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough between NW Venzuela and 80W.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and possible rainshowers,
cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and possible
precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea will
prevail through Tuesday before diminishing. High pressure will
prevail in the western Atlantic Ocean through the week.
This will support moderate to fresh trade winds in much of the
basin from Tuesday night through Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the coastal waters of the SE U.S.A.,
from Georgia to Florida, to the NW half of Cuba, to Nicaragua.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 66W westward. A surface trough is along 31N73W,
to the NW Bahamas, to 24N80W in the Straits of Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from Cuba northward from 70W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 74W eastward. A 1036 mb high pressure
center is near 38N54W.

The current surface trough, from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas, will
dissipate on Tuesday. High pressure will build gradually
westward into the region, from late tonight through Wednesday,
and then prevail through the remainder of the week. This will
support moderate to fresh E to SE
winds across much of the forecast waters from Wednesday through
Saturday.

$$
mt/al
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