[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302358
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has a Gale Warning for
the marine areas of Agadir and Canaries for N to NE gale winds in
effect from 1200 UTC Jul 31 to 0000 UTC Aug 1 at least. See the
Metarea II forecast from Meteo-France at gmdss.org/II.html .

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
14N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with this wave from 5N-10N between 25W-
35W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W from
19N southward. This wave is moving westward around 15 kt. No
convection is associated with the wave at this time.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W from
20N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward at
around 5-10 kts. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 9N-
14N between 78W-83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 06N39W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ
analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 8N-15N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the basin. Winds
are tranquil over the Gulf of Mexico this evening. Seas are 3-4 ft
over the SW Gulf and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 22N and west of 95W.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region during
the upcoming weekend and early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.

A moderate pressure gradient from a surface ridge north of the
Caribbean to lower pressure over northern South America is
supporting fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean.
Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6-8 ft over
the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical wave, no significant
convection is noted this evening.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon, then diminish to fresh
speeds through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging dominates the Tropical Atlantic from a 1029
mb Azores High at 40N30W west-southwestward to the northern
Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, a weak trough extends from
21N43W to 25N46W with no significant convection noted at this
time. Just north of Hispaniola, fresh to strong E trades are
present. Elsewhere, the ridge is sustaining moderate or weaker
trades across the basin. Seas are 5-6 ft south of 22N and 3-4 ft
north of 22N. Aside from the convection associated with the
monsoon trough and tropical wave, no additional convection is
noted.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N
will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally
strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night
just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh
south to southwest winds are expected across the far northwest
waters Sun night through Mon night.

$$
Landsea
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