[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
14N southward, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered
showers are are associated with this wave from 5N to 8N between
28W to 38W.

A second Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from 19N60W
to 4N56W and across inland Suriname. This wave is moving westward
around 15-20 kt. No convection is associated with the wave at this
time.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 81W from
19N southward into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward
at around 5 kts. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 4N
to 12N between 77W-86W, including the coastal waters of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 06N41W. At this time, there are no segments of the ITCZ
analyzed in the tropical Atlantic. In addition to the convection
described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 9N to 14N between 14W to 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from the Florida Panhandle and
extending over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
convection is associated with this trough from 27N to 30N between
85W to 90W. Moderate W winds were detected near this trough by
the latest scatterometer pass. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging
extends across the basin. Moderate E winds are occurring over the
southwest Gulf of Mexico, while light to gentle anticyclonic flow
and tranquil conditions prevail elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface trough will drift west and
gradually dissipate through this afternoon. Atlantic high pressure
extends westward across the basin. The ridge will dominate the
Gulf region during the upcoming weekend and early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean.

Fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean were observed by
an ASCAT pass this morning. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
over the eastern and western Caribbean. Seas are 6-9 ft in the
central Caribbean, 3-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in
the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central
Caribbean will continue through early Mon, then diminish to fresh
speeds through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure ridging dominates the Tropical Atlantic. In the
central Atlantic, a trough extends from 21N42W to 27N45W, with no
significant convection noted at this time. The ridge is
sustaining light to gentle trades north of 22N and moderate to
locally fresh trades south of 22N from 45W to 76W. An ASCAT pass
this morning also observed fresh to locally strong NE winds near
the Canary Islands. In the western Atlantic, north of 22N and
west of 65W, seas are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere in open waters, seas
range from 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure ridging along 26N
will change little into early next week. Expect fresh to locally
strong east winds to pulse during the late afternoons and at night
just off the northern coast of Hispaniola, including approaches
to the Windward Passage through early next week. Moderate to fresh
south to southwest winds are expected across the far northwest
waters Sun night through Mon night.

$$
Nepaul/Mahoney
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