[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KKEY 051546
HLSKEY
FLZ076>078-060000-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Key West FL  AL052021
1146 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers the Florida Keys

**Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the Lower and Middle
Keys**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Monroe Upper Keys
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and
      Monroe Middle Keys

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles south of Key West FL
    - 21.5N 81.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 1100 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 20
miles east-southeast of the southern coast of central Cuba. There has
been no change in the intensity of Elsa during the past six hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move across western Cuba
today, emerge into the Straits of Florida this evening, then move north
northwest into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm
tonight into Tuesday. The track forecast has shifted west over the
past 24-hours, and our confidence in the track forecast remains high.
Conditions will deteriorate across the Florida Keys this afternoon and
tonight.

The risk for multiple weather hazards continues for the Florida Keys,
including tropical storm force winds, coastal flooding, heavy
rainfall, isolated tornadoes, and treacherous marine conditions. These
hazards will extend well to the east of the center of circulation
and beyond the edge of the track cone. Tropical storm conditions are
most likely to arrive late this afternoon and continue through Tuesday
morning, with conditions gradually improving Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night.

Fast moving and frequent squalls with blinding downpours and strong
winds of tropical storm force will cause driving on the Overseas
Highway and other roads in Monroe County to be challenging during the
peak of Elsa, especially in the Lower Keys from the west end of Seven
Mile Bridge to Key West.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
6 inches, may cause significant rainwater flooding, including areas
not impacted by coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall will be exacerbated
Tuesday morning during the times of high tide.

Coastal flooding 1 foot higher than our recent high tides, along with
overwash along south facing shorelines, will be possible.

An isolated tornado or two will be possible across the Florida Keys
from this evening into Tuesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* SURGE:
Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
      immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
      farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
    - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water.
      Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers
      the road.
    - Moderate beach erosion.
    - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few
      small craft broken away from moorings.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
No mandatory evacuation directives have been announced.

Monroe County Emergency Management advises residents and visitors who
are in campgrounds, recreational vehicles, travel trailers, live-
aboard vessels and mobile homes to relocate to a safe structure for
the duration of the storm.

Visitors in conventional lodging facilities should remain indoors
until the storm clears the region.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer
shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For Florida Division of Emergency Management information, see
floridadisaster.org
- For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see
monroecountyem.com/782/Emergency-Management
- For Monroe County EM Hurricane Preparedness Information, see
monroecountyem.com/1214/Hurricane-Preparedness
- For Monroe County EM Evacuation Information, see
monroecountyem.com/897/Evacuation-information
- For Monroe County shelter information, see
monroecountyem.com/992/Shelters

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Key West FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

CLR
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