[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KMLB 051528
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Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052021
1128 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers East Central Florida

**A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR LAKE COUNTY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Northern Lake and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 510 miles south of Leesburg FL
    - 21.5N 81.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move across Cuba later today,
near the lower Florida Keys tonight and be over eastern Gulf of Mexico
offshore southwest Florida by Tuesday morning. Elsa will then turn
north and and northeast, crossing the north-central Florida peninsula
on Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Watch continues in effect for Lake County, which is
where the highest potential exists for experiencing sustained tropical
storm force winds up to 40 mph.

Elsa's impacts will begin to be felt across east central Florida
Tuesday through Tuesday night as the system is moving north and
parallel to the Florida west coast, and well before the center makes
landfall near the eastern Florida Big Bend.

Outer rain bands from Elsa will begin to impact Central Florida by mid
day Tuesday, increasing in frequency and intensity as the center makes
its closest approach to our area. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are
possible, with isolated higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The highest
rainfall totals are expected to be closest to the track of Elsa's
center, over and adjacent to Lake County.

Additionally, these rain bands across much of east central Florida will
likely produce wind gusts to tropical storm force, possibly as high as
50 to 60 mph in the most intense bands. Some tornadoes are also possible
as the environment becomes increasingly favorable for rotating storms.

Outside of rain bands breezy to windy conditions will start to develop
across the area Tuesday afternoon and spreading from south to
north through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.

It is important to note that some uncertainty remains with both the
forecast track, intensity and size of Elsa as it will interact with
Cuba later today and tonight. Changes to the forecast could impact
both the degree and areal extent of impacts, especially if Elsa
becomes stronger and tracks farther east than currently forecast.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across east central Florida, particularly Lake County and
areas near the Kissimmee River. . Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
Lake County, possibly extending to the Interstate 4 corridor in
Volusia, Seminole and Orange Counties. . Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts interior porrtions of east central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the
storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees or a mobile home, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as a
large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, or near an
already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 530 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Volkmer/Rodriguez
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