[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 051523
HLSTAE
FLZ018-019-028-029-034-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ160-052330-

Tropical Storm Elsa Local Statement Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL052021
1123 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

**Tropical Storm Watches Expanded to the North and West**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Coastal Dixie and
      Coastal Taylor
    - A Storm Surge Watch has been issued and a Tropical Storm Watch
      has been issued for Coastal Jefferson and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Franklin,
      Inland Jefferson, Lowndes, and Madison

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, and Coastal
      Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Franklin,
      Inland Dixie, Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette,
      Lowndes, and Madison

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 620 miles south-southeast of St Marks or about 580 miles
      south-southeast of Steinhatchee River
    - 21.5N 81.2W
    - Storm Intensity 65 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 310 degrees at 14 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to cross Cuba and enter the eastern
Gulf of Mexico later today. Elsa is forecast to move northward roughly
parallel to the Florida Peninsula before approaching the Southeast Big
Bend Tuesday night. Elsa is currently forecast to make landfall as a
tropical storm somewhere along the Nature Coast and Southeast Big Bend
sometime around Wednesday morning. Conditions could begin to
deteriorate across the Southeast Big Bend as early as Tuesday evening.

Tropical storm force winds will be possible across the Southeast Big
Bend and could cause downed tree limbs, power outages, and loose
items blown around. A Storm Surge of around 2 to 4 feet will be
possible across Apalachee Bay but will remain heavily dependent on any
track and intensity changes. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated
amounts near 5 to 6 inches will be possible with Elsa. This rainfall
could cause some localized flooding issues across the Southeast Big
Bend. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible across the
eastern Big Bend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.

Also, prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts
across Western Big Bend and Southwest Georgia.

* SURGE:
Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible significant impacts
across the central and eastern Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across western Florida Big Bend.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, and ditches
      overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts elsewhere across the region.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
the Southeast Big Bend. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend,
southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
 Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the
center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded
as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of
strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness
activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5:30 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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