[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 05 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 05/0600 UTC, is near 20.8N
79.6W. ELSA is moving toward the NW, or 310 degrees, 13 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical
Storm Elsa is in the coastal waters of Cuba, between SE Cuba and
80W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm of the
center in the NW quadrant, and within 170 nm of the center in
the SW quadrant. Scattered strong is from 120 nm to 300 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant, between 80W and NW Cuba on the
Caribbean Sea side of Cuba. Widely scattered moderate is within
300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, on the northern side
of Cuba. This precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas,
south Florida, and the Florida Keys. The hazards affecting land
will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and surf.
Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 15N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 09N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from 11N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300
nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward.
The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/101N between 75W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 10N between the
Colombia/Venezuela border and 74W, and from 07N to 09N in
Colombia between 74W and 77W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, from 10N in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of
Costa Rica to the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 14N17W, to 10N22W, and 05N31W. The ITCZ continues from
05N31W, to 04N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere, away from the tropical waves, from 11N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are
in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 24N northward. A stationary front is
inland, from SE Georgia to southern Mississippi, beyond central
Texas.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the central part of the Florida
west coast, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Elsa is in the Caribbean Sea along the coast of
Cuba, near 20.6N 79.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 13 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa will weaken as
it
moves across western and central Cuba, and the Straits of
Florida, on Monday and Monday night, with maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt and maintain intensity as it reach the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25.1N 82.9W on Tue morning, to
near 27.1N 83.2W Tue evening, then weaken slightly as it tracks
northeastward to 29.2N 82.8W by early Wed with maximum sustained
winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and move inland to near 31.5N 81.6W Wed
evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Expect
for marine conditions to begin to deteriorate over most of the
far eastern Gulf waters beginning Mon and lasting through
mid-week. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to moderate southerly
winds will prevail through early in the week. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue across the north-central
Gulf through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa is in the coastal waters of Cuba, between SE
Cuba and 80W. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 75 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant, and within 170 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant. Scattered strong is from 120 nm to 300 nm of
the center in the NW quadrant, between 80W and NW Cuba on the
Caribbean Sea side of Cuba. Widely scattered moderate is within
300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, on the northern side
of Cuba. This precipitation is reaching parts of the Bahamas,
south Florida, and the Florida Keys.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward.
The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The
monsoon trough is along 09N/101N between 75W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 10N between the
Colombia/Venezuela border and 74W, and from 07N to 09N in
Colombia between 74W and 77W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical
wave, from 10N in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of
Costa Rica to the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize.

Tropical Storm Elsa is near 20.6N 79.2W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving NW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Elsa will move to just offshore the coast of Cuba near 21.9N
80.7W Mon morning with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75
kt, then weaken inland near 23.5N 82.1W with maximum sustained
winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Elsa will maintain intensity as it
moves across the Straits of Florida Mon and Mon night and reach
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25.1N 82.9W on Tue morning.
Fresh to strong trade winds will increase in the south central
Caribbean Sea by Tuesday, and continue through the rest of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level diffluent wind flow is to the south of the
34N70W-to-SE Georgia stationary front.   Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is from 27N to 29N between 71W and
75W. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 24N
to 27N between 77W and 80W in parts of the NW Bahamas. This area
of precipitation also is about 300 nm to the north of T.S. ELSA.
An upper level trough is about 540 nm to the SE of Bermuda. The
southernmost part of the trough reaches toward the NE Caribbean
Sea.

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 22N to 27N between
35W and 44W, to the east of the remnants of a surface trough
during the last 6 hours to 12 hours.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from Florida eastward. A surface ridge
extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center that is near 34N43W,
to 30N62W, to 27N71W, to the central part of the Florida west
coast.

Strong-to-near gale force winds, and sea heights reaching 7
feet, are near the Canary Islands.  Fresh-to-strong winds, and
sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are within 600 nm
to the west of Africa from 15N to 25N.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift slightly eastward
through Monday, in response to a cold front that will be moving
to the N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds
to the east of the front and N of 28N will diminish by Monday
afternoon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move into the
Straits of Florida, from Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The
center of Elsa is expected to move northeastward quickly, along
the southeastern U.S.A. coast, from Wednesday through Thursday.
This movement has the potential to bring tropical force winds to
the far northwestern forecast waters, if the forecast track
holds.

$$
mt/ja
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