[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042310
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 19.8N 77.9W at 04/2100 UTC
or 10 nm W of Cabo Cruz Cuba moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is over Jamaica and E Cuba from 16N to 23N between
74W and 81W. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to move
near or over eastern Cuba this evening, and approach central
Cuba tonight and early Monday. Elsa is expected to move across
central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits on
Monday and pass near the Florida Keys early Tuesday. Elsa is
then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of
Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some strengthening is expected
before Elsa moves over Cuba, followed by some weakening while
the center moves over land. Slight restrengthening is possible
after Elsa moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 16N southward and
moving W near 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm
on either side of the wave axis mainly south of 10N.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along near 50W from 10N
southward and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 03N-13N between 45W-56W.

A Caribbean/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 87W is
near 85W from 18N southward into Honduras and Nicaragua and
moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails
south of 19N between 84W-91W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea at 10N14W to
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 04N29W, then resumes
west of a tropical wave at 04N34W to 07N46W. Aside from the
convection described in the tropical waves section above,
scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends along the gulf coast states is coupling
with an upper-level trough in the vicinity enhancing convection
across the northern half of the basin north of 26N.

A ridge of high pressure across the central Gulf will maintain
light to gentle variable winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the
central and southern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft are found in the northern Gulf, seas up to 5
ft are possible near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa Elsa will move into the
Straits of Florida near to 22.7N 81.2W Mon afternoon, 24.2N
82.4W Tue morning, 25.8N 83.0W Tue afternoon, 27.9N 83.0W Wed
morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 30.5N 82.3W Wed afternoon. Elsewhere in the Gulf, gentle to
moderate southerly winds will prevail through early week.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the
north-central Gulf through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Feature section for information on Tropical
Storm Elsa and a tropical wave over the western Caribbean.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring between Cuba and Jamaica,
and near the Windward Passage. Seas are at 6 to 9 ft near Cuba and
Jamaica, and 10 to 15 ft near the Wind Passage. Please read the
Offshore Waters Forecast the Caribbean Sea for more detailed
information.

Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over the central
basin, and near Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of
2 to 4 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elsa will move to 21.1N 79.4W Mon
morning, inland to 22.7N 81.2W Mon afternoon, and exit the
Caribbean by Mon night, moving into the Gulf of Mexico near 24.2N
82.4W on Tue morning. Otherwise, fresh to strong trade winds
will increase in the south-central Caribbean by Tue and continue
through the week. The tropical wave in the western Caribbean
will move W of the region today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
waves moving across the basin.

A stationary front extending northeastward from N Florida thru
31N81W is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of
27N from 70W westward. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas
of 5 to 7 ft are found in this area.

A surface ridge stretches southwestward from a 1027 mb high near
34N42W thru central Florida. Convergent SE winds along the ridge
axis are producing scattered moderate convection near the N
Bahamas from 24N to 28N between 74W and 78W. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are seen near this ridge N of 25N
between 22W and 64W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft are occurring near the Bahamas and along the W African coast
from the Canary Islands southward to 14N. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are found elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 65W, Atlantic high pressure will shift
slightly eastward through Mon in response to a cold front moving
N of the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds
ahead of the front and N of 28N through today diminish by Mon
afternoon. Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move into the
Straits of Florida by Mon morning. If the track holds, the center
of Elsa could exit the northeast Florida coast on Wednesday.

$$
ERA
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