[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 04 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 04/0600 UTC, is near 17.9N
75.1W. ELSA is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 12 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Tropical
Storm Elsa is between SW Haiti and Jamaica. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within a 120 nm radius of the center, within
150 nm of Jamaica, and in the SE Bahamas from 22N to 24N between
74W and 75W. The forecast path of Elsa is toward central Cuba
during the next 24 hours or so, into the SE Gulf of Mexico on
Tuesday, and then northeastward into Florida from Tuesday into
Wednesday.
The hazards affecting land will be: wind, storm surge, rainfall,
flooding, and surf. Please, read the latest advisories/bulletins
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W, from 16N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation:

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W, from 10N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered
moderate to widely scattered strong is from 05N to 08N between
49W and 54W near the coasts of Suriname and French Guiana. The
sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet within 360 nm on either
side of the tropical wave. Moderate-to-fresh winds are within
750 nm to the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 20N southward.
The wave is moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. The
monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 75W in Colombia, beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered strong is in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters
of Costa Rica; scattered to numerous strong is within a 60 nm
radius of 08N76W in Colombia and in southern Honduras; isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 180 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough and within 300 nm to the south of
the monsoon trough between 72W and 79W; isolated moderate is in
the remainder of the area that is from 80W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 07N16W, and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from
05N20W, to 04N30W 09N35W 06N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 10N from 22W
eastward, and from 02N to 11N between 28W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level W and SW wind flow covers the areas that are
in the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to
locally strong, are from 24N northward. A stationary front is
inland, from SE Georgia to southern Mississippi, beyond central
Texas.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge is along 25N.

Tropical Storm Elsa near 17.9N 75.3W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa
will move to 19.2N 77.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 79.4W Sun evening,
inland to 22.5N 81.0W Mon morning, 24.1N 82.2W Mon evening,
26.0N 82.8W Tue morning, and 28.0N 83.0W Tue evening. Elsa will
move inland near 32.7N 81.0W late on Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Elsa is between SW Haiti and Jamaica.
Precipitation: numerous strong is within a 120 nm radius of the
center, within 150 nm of Jamaica, and in the SE Bahamas from 22N
to 24N between 74W and 75W.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 75W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. A tropical
wave is along 83W from 20N southward. The wave is moving
westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered
strong is in the eastern Pacific Ocean coastal waters of Costa
Rica; scattered to numerous strong is within a 60 nm radius of
08N76W in Colombia
and in southern Honduras; isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough and
within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 72W and
79W; isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is
from 80W westward.

Tropical Storm Elsa near 17.9N 75.3W 1004 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
WNW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsa
will move to 19.2N 77.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 79.4W Sun evening,
inland to 22.5N 81.0W Mon morning, 24.1N 82.2W Mon evening,
26.0N 82.8W Tue morning, and 28.0N 83.0W Tue evening. Elsa will
move inland near 32.7N 81.0W late on Wednesday. A tropical wave
in the western basin will move to the W of the region on Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area from 28N northward
between 70W and Florida.  Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong,
are from Andros Island in the Bahamas northward between 70W and
Florida.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough, and isolated
moderate rainshowers, cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W.

A surface trough is along 29N42W 23N44W 20N44W. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 400 nm on either side of the
surface trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from Florida eastward, away from the 29N42W
20N44W surface trough. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb
high pressure center that is near 33N46W, to 25N69W, across the
Bahamas and south Florida and the Straits of Florida, to 25N85W
in the SE Gulf of Mexico.

Moderate-to-fresh winds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 25N
from 60W eastward. Fresh-to-strong winds are within 170 nm to
the west of Africa from 20N to 22N, and in the Canary Islands.
The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in most of the same
areas, except for sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet
near the Canary Islands.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift slightly eastward
through Monday, in response to a cold front that will be moving
to the N of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong southerly winds
ahead of the front and N of 28N will diminish on Monday.
Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to move near the SW coast of
Hispaniola tonight, and move to parts of central and western
Cuba from Sunday into Monday, and to the Straits of Florida by
Monday afternoon.

$$
mt
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