[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032302
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 4 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 17.5N 73.9W at 03/2100 UTC
or 110 nm SW of Port Au Prince Haiti moving WNW at 24 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the storm.
Elsa will move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba Sunday,
across central and western Cuba Monday heading toward the Florida
Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of
the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis extends from 01N to 17N and along 20W,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N
to 11N between 14W and 25W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 43W and south of 10N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to
10N between 40W and 45W.

A tropical wave axis extends along 79W and S of 20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis, with
strongest activity south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 10N26W. ITCZ is from
10N26W to 08N40W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from
05N46W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted from
00N-08N between 38W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system remains over land across the coastal states,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms along the northern Gulf coast
from central Texas to the Florida Big Bend area. 1017 mb high
pressure is centered over the southeast Gulf near 25N85W. This
pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate W winds over the
northeast Gulf with 2 to 4 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes
elsewhere with 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, Elsa will enter the Gulf by Mon afternoon near 23.1N 81.6W,
24.9N 82.6W Tue morning, and 26.9N 83.1W Tue afternoon. There continues
to be uncertainty regarding the exact track and intensity of Elsa
as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the sections above for details on T.S. Elsa.

Fresh to strong SE winds over the eastern Caribbean are subsiding
in the wake of Elsa. Seas are 8 to 12 ft over the northeast
Caribbean, and 6 to 9 ft over the southeast Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, Elsa will continue WNW through the southern
Windward Passage tonight, then along the southern coast of Cuba
through late Mon before crossing Cuba into the southeast Gulf.
Trade winds will increase over the central Caribbean into early
next week as high pressure over the Atlantic builds in the wake
of Elsa, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will
increase over the Gulf of Honduras by mid week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A fairly tight pressure gradient between 1025 mb high pressure
centered near 30N54W and a pair of frontal boundary farther west
off the Georgia and Carolina coastlines is supporting fresh to
strong SW winds north of 28N and west of 65W, with 7 to 10 ft
seas. Similarly, fresh to strong E to SE winds are evident south
of 22N and west of 65W off Hispaniola and into the Turks and
Caicos Islands, between the high pressure and Elsa centered south
of Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh southerly flow and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted elsewhere over open waters along the ridge axis
east of the northern Bahamas. Farther east, a trough is evident
north of 20N between 45W and 50W, breaking up the subtropical
ridge. This pattern is supporting generally moderate trade winds
south of 20N across the Atlantic, with 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle
E breezes are noted north of 20N with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
swell, except for fresh to strong NE winds off northwest Africa.

For the forecast west of 65W: the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to shift southeastward through the weekend in response
to the cold front that will approach the waters off northeast
Florida. The front will become stationary just north of the area
early next week, then lift north by mid week, possibly ahead of a
still active Elsa moving across north central Florida.

$$
Christensen
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