[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ELSA: As of 1800 UTC, Elsa is centered near 13.7N
62.5W, or 83 nm WNW of St. Vincent, moving WNW at 25 kt. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 75 kt with higher gusts. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Peak seas are currently 24
ft. 12 ft seas radii are 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the
SE quadrant, 30 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW
quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within
150 nm of the center of Elsa. On the forecast track, Elsa will
move away from the Windward Islands during the next several hours,
move across the eastern Caribbean Sea later today and tonight,
and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or
Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica
and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central
and western Cuba Sunday night and early Monday. Heavy rainfall
from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands today. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico
late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica
Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. Please
consult products from your local meteorological service. Please
also read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has exited the coast of Africa, and is
currently analyzed along 19W from 05N to 17N. This tropical is
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, also
associated with the Monsoon Trough, is from 03N to 12N east of
30W.

A low amplitude Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W from 01N to
10N, moving west at 10-15 kts. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N to 06N between 37W and 40W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, moving west at 15-20 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 71W and
76W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W
to 09N20W to 07N31W. Convection is described in the tropical waves
section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time, as the
low level flow east of 40W remains disrupted by Hurricane Elsa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is located in the SW Gulf from
23N97W to 19N93W, with a 1012 mb low centered at 21N95W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 19N to 24N between 91W and 96W.
The latest scatterometer data shows strong S winds with this area
of convection. Elsewhere, surface ridging supports gentle to
moderate S winds throughout the Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft. Some
scattered showers are noted in the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extending westward along
25N from the Atlantic to the southeastern Gulf will shift east-
southeast through the weekend. Hurricane Elsa is forecast to
reach near southeastern Cuba early Sun, then track northwestward
to the Straits of Florida late Mon and across the far eastern Gulf
through Tue, possibly reaching the area near the Florida Big Bend
late Tue night or early on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa.

Scattered moderate convection from 12N to 14N between 64W and 70W
precedes Hurricane Elsa in the eastern Caribbean. East of 70W,
fresh NE winds were indicated in the latest scatterometer data.
Moderate trades continue from 70W west to 77W, where wind speeds
diminish to gentle through the W Caribbean. Seas are 9-14 ft near
the Windward and Leeward Islands, 5-7 ft between 64W and 72W, and
2-5 ft west of 72W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Elsa will move to near 4.6N 64.9W
this evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt and gusts to 85
kt and maintain intensity as it moves to near 16.3N 69.8W early
Sat, to near 17.8N 73.6W Sat evening, then begin to weaken as it
nears 19.3N 76.4W early Sun with maximum sustained winds 65 kt
gusts 80 kt. Elsa is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm as it
moves across eastern Cuba Sun and Sun night, then inland central
Cuba and across the Straits of Florida through late Mon and over
the eastern Gulf through late Tue. Meanwhile, a tropical wave in
the eastern Caribbean south of Haiti will move across the rest of
the central Caribbean through tonight and across the western
Caribbean through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa.

A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida continues to
support scattered scattered moderate convection from 24N to 31N
between 71W and 79W, across the northern Bahamas and the offshore
waters to the north. Moderate to locally strong S winds are noted
with this area of convection. Fresh E winds are noted from Puerto
Rico and the Leeward Islands north to 21N between 57W and 68W.
The strong 1027 mb subtropical high centered at 30N54W is
supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast today in
response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest
forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of
the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of
the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near
southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon and
to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during Mon and
Mon night and near the Florida Big Bend early on Wed.

$$
Mahoney
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