[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021309
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021

UPDATED WITH THE 1230 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR HURRICANE ELSA

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ELSA: Recent surface observations from Barbados
indicate that Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 65 kt, and the tropical cyclone is now a hurricane. A Special
Advisory was issued at 1230 UTC. Elsa is centered near 13.1N60.1W
or 35 nm W of Barbados moving WNW at 24 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt
with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is within 180 nm of the center of Elsa. On the forecast track,
Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or
the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern
Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern
coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to
move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall
from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will
impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern
Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and
mudslides are possible. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 00N to 10N along 35W, moving W from 10-15
knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between
30W and 39W.

A tropical wave is S of 20N along 70W, moving W at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 21N between 67W and
79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N22W to 07N31W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 02W and
30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge extends into the eastern Gulf and supports
light to gentle variable wind E of 90W and gentle to moderate
return flow W of 90W. Seas are in the 1-3 ft basin-wide.
Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are in the SW basin associated
with a tropical wave that is moving across Belize and Guatemala.

Tropical Storm Elsa over the tropical Atlantic is forecast to
reach near southeastern Cuba early Sun, to over western Cuba early
Mon and to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
Mon and Mon night. Then Elsa is forecast to reach the area near
the Florida Big Bend late Tue night or early on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa.

A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean near 70W will move
across the central Caribbean through Sat. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the wave with possibly reducing
visibility. Tropical Storm Elsa near 12.7N 58.6W 1001 mb at 5 AM
EDT moving WNW at 24 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt. Elsa will move to 13.8N 62.4W this afternoon, 15.4N 67.4W Sat
morning, 17.1N 71.7W Sat afternoon, 18.7N 75.2W Sun morning, 20.2N
77.8W Sun afternoon, and 21.7N 79.7W Mon morning. Elsa will
change little in intensity as it moves near 25.2N 82.2W early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Hurricane Elsa.

A middle to upper level trough just E of Florida continue to
support scattered showers and isolated tstms across the northern
Bahamas and the offshore waters to the north. The remainder basin
is under the influence of the Azores high, which is supporting
fair weather.

Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift southeast today in
response to a cold front that will approach the far northwest
forecast waters. The front will become stationary just north of
the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of
the area over the tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and tonight, and move
near the southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near
southeastern Cuba early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon and
to possibly the far southeastern Gulf of Mexico during Mon and
Mon night and near the Florida Big Bend early on Wed.

$$
Ramos/Mahoney
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