[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020603
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 02 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm ELSA, at 02/0300 UTC, is near 11.8N
55.9W, or about 230 nm/425 km to the ESE of the island of
Barbados. ELSA is moving toward the WNW, or 290 degrees, 23
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 kt.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong is within 210 nm of
the center in the NW semicircle. Tropical storm force winds are
within 120 NM of the center in the NE quadrant, within 100 nm of
the center in the SE quadrant, and within 110 nm of the center
in the NW quadrant. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are
within 75 nm of the center in the NW and the SE quadrants, and
within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The maximum sea
heights are reaching 16 feet. The forecast track moves ELSA to
parts of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on
Friday; into the eastern Caribbean Sea late on Friday and Friday
night; and near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday.
ELSA is forecast to move near Jamaica and parts of eastern Cuba
by Sunday. Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and mudslides are
possible as ELSA continues on its path. Please, read the latest
advisories/bulletins at www.nhc.noaa.gov/#ELSA, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W, from 10N
southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm to the west of
the tropical wave, and within 120 nm to the east of the tropical
wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, at the eastern edge of Hispaniola, moving westward
from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong in
small clusters is within 60 nm of the coast of Hispaniola on the
NE corner of the island, and on the SE corner of the island. The
GFS model for 500 mb indicates that an inverted trough is along
70W/71W, from Hispaniola southward. Precipitation: numerous
strong is in the Windward Passage.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 20N
southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. This wave
passes through parts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and along the
western coast of Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong covers the following countries: the westernmost
sections of Honduras, all of El Salvador, and from NW to SE in
Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau, to 09N20W, 07N32W. No ITCZ is present at the
moment. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 03N to 12N between 08W and 32W. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward between the
34W tropical wave and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening surface trough is in the western sections of the
Gulf of Mexico, rom the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico to 28N95W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is
near 24N90W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 26N southward.

A surface ridge covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, along 26N
between Florida and the Deep South of Texas/NE Mexico, away from
the weakening surface trough.

Surface high pressure will dominate through the weekend.
Tropical Storm Elsa, in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, is forecast
to reach near southeastern Cuba early on Sunday, near western
Cuba early on Monday afternoon, possibly into the far
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday night, and into
the far eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 20N
southward, at the eastern edge of Hispaniola, moving westward
from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong in
small clusters is within 60 nm of the coast of Hispaniola on the
NE corner of the island, and on the SE corner of the island. The
GFS model for 500 mb indicates that an inverted trough is along
70W/71W, from Hispaniola southward. Precipitation: numerous
strong is in the Windward Passage.

Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, cover the waters from 10N
to 14N between 59W and 65W, to the west of T.S. Elsa.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 74W in Colombia,
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
in NW sections of Venezuela and in northern Colombia, within 240
nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between Lake Maracaibo in
NW Venezuela and 77W in the coastal waters of Colombia.

An eastern Caribbean Sea 69W tropical wave will move quickly
into the central Caribbean Sea from tonight through Saturday.
Scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave,
possibly reducing the visibility. Tropical Storm Elsa near 11.8N
55.9W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 23 kt. Maximum
sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Elsa will move to 12.8N 59.7W
Fri morning, 14.5N 64.8W Fri evening, 16.2N 69.8W Sat morning,
17.7N 73.3W Sat evening, 19.4N 76.5W Sun morning, and 21.2N
78.8W Sun evening. Elsa will change little in intensity as it
moves near 23.9N 81.7W late Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level to upper level trough is off the coast of Florida
and Georgia. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is in the Bahamas, from SE to NW, and elsewhere within 300 nm to
the east of Florida. Another upper level trough is near Bermuda.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 23N
northward between 60W and 70W, and from 30N northward between
53W and 60W.

A surface ridge extends from the Madeira Archipelago, to 26N30W,
to 26N44W, through a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near
29N56W, to 30N72W, beyond south Florida, to 26N84W in the SE
Gulf of Mexico.

Atlantic Ocean high pressure will begin to shift southeastward
on Friday, as a cold front approaches the far northwestern
forecast waters. The front will become stationary just to the
north of the area early next week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well
to the southeast of the area, in the tropical Atlantic waters.
Elsa is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late on
Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of
Hispaniola on Saturday, then close to
southeastern Cuba early on Sunday, to western Cuba early on
Monday afternoon, and possibly to the far southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Monday and Monday night, and into the far eastern Gulf
of Mexico on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

$$
mt
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