[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Elsa is centered near 11.2N 53.8W at 01/2100 UTC
or 360 nm ESE of Barbados moving WNW at 25 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the center in the northeast
quadrant. Seas are 12 ft or greater within 180 nm of the center
in the northeast quadrant, with maximum seas estimated to be near
15 ft. Elsa is forecast to continue to move to the WNW across the
Windward Islands and enter the eastern Caribbean Fri, before
moving toward Hispaniola Sat, and eastern Cuba Sun. Heavy
rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides are possible as Elsa moves
near these areas. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W south of 10N, moving W
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N
to 08N between 27N and 37W.

The axis of a a tropical wave is near 67W south of 20N, moving W
at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the
12N to 17N between 64W and 70W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W south of 19N, moving W
at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this
tropical wave over the Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 09N25W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N25W to 06N30W. A
second segment of the ITCZ begins at 02N36W to 05N43W. Aside
from the convection noted in the tropical waves section, an area
of scattered moderate convection is noted near the monsoon trough
from 04N to 11N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from south of Louisiana to a 1012 mb
surface low pressure area in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico
near 19N94W. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm of the
trough south of 20W off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
High pressure prevails across the rest of the Gulf, with light to
gentle E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the trough will shift west and dissipate,
leaving a ridge to dominate the Gulf waters over the next
several days producing mainly moderate E to SE winds. Fresh east
to southeast winds are expected at night near the western Yucatan
Peninsula through Fri due to local effects induced by a thermal
trough. Another trough will persist over the SW Gulf over the
next several days producing showers and thunderstorms. Winds and
seas may be higher near thunderstorms. Looking ahead, Tropical
Storm Elsa currently east of Barbados in the tropical Atlantic is
expected move across Cuba Sun and Sun night, and approach the
Straits of Florida and far southeastern Gulf Mon and Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands.

A 15 UTC scatterometer pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds
reaching from the coast of the Dominican Republic to the north
central Caribbean, ahead of the approaching tropical wave south
of Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong E winds are likely ongoing in
this area with seas approaching 8 ft. Observations from Roatan
along with the same scatterometer pass confirmed fresh trade
winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Generally moderate easterly
winds are noted elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft seas, except for 3 to 5
ft seas in the northwest Caribbean. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active over the eastern Caribbean following the
tropical wave.

For the forecast, the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
south of Puerto Rico will move quickly into the central
Caribbean tonight through Sat. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the wave with possibly reducing
visibility. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elsa is near 11.2N 53.8W
1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds
40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsa will move to near 12.1N 57.5W late
tonight with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts to 55 kt, to
near 13.5N 62.4W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt
gusts 60 kt and maintain intensity as it reaches near 15.1N
67.3W late Fri night, to near 16.7N 71.6W early Sat afternoon, to
near 18.3N 75.0W late Sat night, to near 19.8N 77.9W early Sun
afternoon and to over western Cuba early Mon afternoon and to
possibly the far southeastern Gulf during Mon and Mon night and
far eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features Section above for details on Tropical
Storm Elsa, which is moving west toward the Windward Islands.

A few showers are active across the Bahamas ahead of a small
upper trough moving across Florida. The main influence on the
surface conditions is a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near
29N54W, with a ridge extending toward northeast Florida. This is
supporting fresh trade winds south of 20N west of 65W, and
generally moderate SE winds elsewhere west of 65W, with 4 to 6 ft
seas in open waters. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas
are noted near the center of the high pressure. Elsewhere across
the north Atlantic south of 32N but outside the area of Elsa,
moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas persist.

For the forecast for the waters west of 65W, Atlantic high
pressure will begin to shift southeast Fri in response to as a
cold front approaches the far northwest forecast waters. The
front will become stationary just north of the area early next
week. Tropical Storm Elsa is well southeast of the area over the
tropical Atlantic waters. Elsa is forecast to move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night, and move near the
southern coast of Hispaniola Sat, then to near southeastern Cuba
early Sun and to over western Cuba early Mon afternoon and to
possibly the far southeastern Gulf during Mon and Mon night and
the far eastern Gulf Tue and Tue night.

$$
Christensen
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