[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are
expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE
Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night.
Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the
forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in
the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W.The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 02N30W to 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection
and isolated thunderstorms are within 200 nm either side of the
monsoon trough. Similar convective activity is observed along
and within 150 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC: A cold front entered the western Gulf this
morning and extends from Lake Charles, Louisiana to S of Corpus
Christi, TX near 26N97W. Moderate to fresh return flow remains
ahead of the front in the eastern half of the basin, with winds
shifting to northwesterly behind the front . Dry air at middle
and lower levels maintain fair weather conditions at this time.
Seas range from 3-6 ft.

The front will move eastward quickly and reach from
Apalachicola, Florida to near 25N90W and to the SW Gulf this
evening and from Fort Myers, Florida to the northern Yucatan
Peninsula early on Mon. The front will move east of the area by
early Mon afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead
and behind the front this morning and prevail through Mon night.
Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the
western Gulf Wed and continue through Thu night, along with
building seas, ahead of the next cold front that may approach
the Texas coast late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to
cause potential coastal flooding and very high surf along
north-facing shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of
Hispaniola through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15
to 20 ft in some areas.

A plume of shallow moisture, remnants of a stationary front, is
supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Deep-layer dry air is maintaining
generally fair weather conditions across the remainder of the
basin. The latest scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong
trades dominating the entire basin with the exception of the
northwest Caribbean where flow becomes moderate to fresh. Seas
in the central Caribbean range 6-12 ft due to the gale force
winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia overnight, mentioned
above. Seas range 5-7 ft elsewhere.

Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong
to near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through
early Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern
Caribbean will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period
northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean
passagesand into the Tropical N Atlantic waters into early
next week, with the largest swell expected through tonight.
A cold front is forecast to reach from western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it reaches from
the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by early
Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW Caribbean Mon afternoon through early Tue and the SW
Caribbean from early Tue through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida
offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details.

A cold front sweeping eastward associated with a low north of
the area merged with a stationary front in the central Atlantic.
The cold front extends southwestward from 32N44W, transitions to
stationary near 27N49W, then dissipates north of the Leeward
Islands. Fresh to strong W winds are behind the cold front,
north of 28N. Seas in this area reach 22 ft. Surface riding
allowing for dry conditions continues on either side of the
boundary.

Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the
Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, and
reach from near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed
where it will stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force
southerly winds are expected ahead of this front tonight through
Tue night. Northerly long-period swell associated with the front
will propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell
will be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu
and Thu night.


$$
Mora
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net