[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 31 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The combination of the strong high
pressure north of the area and low pressure over northern
Colombia will support a continuation of gale force winds over the
south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia through this
morning. Gales will return again during the overnight hours
tonight and last into Monday morning. Seas of 10 to 13 ft are
expected in the area, highest around sunrise. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move east
of northern Florida late tonight, and reach from 31N68W to the SE
Bahamas by early Tue. Gale-force southerly winds are expected
ahead of this front north of 27N late tonight through Tue night.
Seas associated with the front will quickly build over the
forecast waters Mon through Tue, with seas to 15 ft expected in
the gale area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from
04N25W to 00N49W. Widely scattered moderate convection and
isolated tstms are within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh return flow is across the basin ahead of the
next cold front expected to come off the coast of Texas this
morning. Seas range from 3-6 ft. Dry air at middle and lower
levels mantain fair weather conditions at this time.

The cold front is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to
south of Tampico early on Mon and move E of the basin early in
the afternoon. Fresh to strong winds will develop ahead and behind
the front this morning and prevail through Mon night. Strong to
near gale force southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf
Wed and continue through Thu night, along with building seas,
ahead of the next cold front that may approach the Texas coast
late Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia.

Large northerly swell east of the Bahamas will continue to cause
potential coastal flooding and very high surf along north-facing
shorelines of the Caribbean Sea islands east of Hispaniola
through Monday, with breaking waves approaching 15 to 20 feet in
some areas.

A plume of shallow moisture, remnant of a stationary front, is
supporting passing showers over portions of Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and Jamaica. Dry, stable air dominates the remainder
basin, supporting fair weather.

Strong high pressure north of the area will support strong to
near gale-force winds in the central Caribbean through early Mon,
with gale conditions developing near the coast of Colombia again
tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern Caribbean
will start to diminish Tue. Large long-period northerly swell will
propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and into the Tropical
N Atlantic waters into early next week, with the largest swell
expected through tonight. A cold front is forecast to reach from
western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon, then stall as it
reaches from the Dominican Republic to the central Caribbean by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds following the front will affect
the NW basin through Tue and the far SW basin Tue and Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A gale is forecast to begin late tonight over the NE Florida
offshore waters. See the Special Features section for details.

Surface ridging continue to dominate the SW N Atlantic as well as
the NE Atlantic forecast waters. Between the ridges, a stationary
front extending from 31N43W to 20N60W gradually weakens. Fresh to
strong winds are N of 28N W of the front to 65W and ahead of the
front to 42W with seas to 22 ft.

Large long-period northerly swell east and northeast of the
Bahamas will gradually subside through tonight. A strong cold
front will move east of northern Florida early on Mon, reach from
near 25N65W to the Dominican Republic by early Wed where it will
stall before dissipating early on Thu. Gale force southerly winds
are expected ahead of this front tonight through Tue night.
Northerly long-period swell associated with the front will
propagate through the forecast waters Mon through mid-week,
combining with residual swell from a former front. The swell will
be mainly confined to the eastern section of the area Thu and Thu
night.

$$
Ramos
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