[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front is along 31N62W
22N78W. Expect SW-to-W gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 15 feet to 26 feet, within the area that is bounded by:
27N62W 26N70W 31N75W 31N57W 27N62W. The gale-force winds are
forecast for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W,
to 04N20W, 03N32W, 03N33W, and to 04N40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the 05N southward
from 33W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 12N southward between 32W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico during
the last 24 hours has passed through the area completely.
Surface high pressure spans the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge passes through the upper Texas Gulf coast to the coastal
plains of Mexico near 21N97W.

Strong winds and large seas, associated with a cold front that
is exiting from the region, will diminish gradually through
Friday. Southerly winds will increase in the western Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and Saturday, in advance of a cold front moving
off the Texas coast on Sunday. The front will move quickly
across the basin from Sunday through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Bahamas near 23N75W, across Cuba
near 22N79W, to 21N83W in the Caribbean Sea. The front becomes
dissipating from 21N83W to the NE Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N91W
in Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 18N northward from
the Windward Passage westward.

A surface trough passes through 20N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
16N62W a little bit to the west of Guadeloupe. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are elsewhere within 200 nm to the northwest of the
surface trough, and within 250 nm to the southeast of the
surface trough, including from 15N to 20N between 60W and 65W in
the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
the border of Colombia and Panama, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from
75W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

A cold front from central Cuba to the northern Yucatan Peninsula
will move southward and weaken across the NW Caribbean Sea
through Saturday morning. Strong high pressure to the north of
the area will support fresh to strong winds across the south
central Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night. Gale-force wind
conditions will be possible near the coast of northern Colombia
on Friday night and Saturday night. Large northerly swell will
propagate through the NE Caribbean Sea passages, and into the
Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through the weekend, with the largest
swell expected pm Sunday and Sunday night. A second cold front
is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Sea on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N61W to 25N70W, through the
Bahamas near 23N75W, across Cuba near 22N79W, to 21N83W in the
Caribbean Sea. The front becomes dissipating from 21N83W to the
NE Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N91W in Mexico. Precipitation: broken
to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are
within 75 nm on either side of the front, in the Atlantic Ocean.
Gale-force winds are associated with this front.

A surface trough is along 32N32W, to 26N40W 20N50W, to 16N62W a
little bit to the west of Guadeloupe. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward
beween 25W and 41W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are elsewhere within 200 nm to the
northwest of the rest of the surface trough, and within 250 nm
to the southeast of the rest of the surface trough, including
from 10N to 20N between 40W and 60W, and from 15N to 20N between
60W and 65W in the Caribbean Sea.

Gale-force winds and large seas are to the north of 27N in the
west central Atlantic Ocean. The current cold front across the
forecast area extends from 31N62W to central Cuba. The front
will reach from 24N60W to the Windward Passage on Saturday
morning, then become stationary
from 21N60W to the Mona Passage on Saturday night. Large
northerly swell associated with the front will affect most of
the forecast area to the east of the Bahamas through Monday.
Another cold front will move to the east of northern Florida
late on Sunday night or early on Monday.

$$
mt/dm
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