[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 29 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 32N67W to
W Cuba. Gale force winds prevail on either side of the front.
Winds as high as 45 kt and extremely large seas are expected
with this system as it moves eastward across the Atlantic through
Fri, mainly north of 27N. Gales ongoing north of 27N and west of
the front will spread east through the end of the week. The
gales will exit the area north of 31N by Fri evening. Seas
exceeding 20 ft currently near 64W- 74W and north of 30N will
continue to spread to north of 27N between 40W-74W through Sat.
Seas should subside by Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure will build north
of the area in the wake of a strong cold front by the end
of the week through the weekend. The combination of the
building high and the low pressure over northern Colombia
will support pulsing gale force winds north of the coast of
Colombia Fri night and again on Sat night. Winds will be
strong to near gale force tonight. Seas will build to around
12 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The cold front that moved across
the Gulf of Mexico has shifted SE of the area. Gale force winds
over the extreme SW Gulf will diminish below gale force this
evening. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near
07N12W to 05N16W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N16W to 03N38W
to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 33W and the
coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details
on a Gale Warning in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico has
shifted SE of the area. High pressure in the wake of the front
now prevails across the Gulf waters. Gale force winds, and seas
of 10 to 12 ft, prevail over the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds,
and seas of 7-10 ft prevail from the coast of northern Florida
SW to the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft
are noted over the NW Gulf.

Gale conditions over the Veracruz adjacent waters will diminish
tonight. The area of strong winds and 8-10 ft seas will
gradually diminish through Fri. Southerly return flow will
increase over W Gulf on Fri ahead of the next cold front moving
off the Texas coast Sun. The front will move eastward across the
basin and SE of the area Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a
Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean Sea
north of the coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the south- central
Caribbean, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 8-11 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, and
4-7 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds will continue across the south-central
Caribbean through Tue night, with gale conditions developing over
NW Colombia adjacent waters Fri and Sat nights. A cold front
will move across the NW Caribbean this evening through Fri night.
Fresh to strong NE winds will follow the front and affect the NW
Caribbean waters through Sat, and the Windward and Mona passages
from early Fri through Sun. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night. A
second cold front is forecast to approach the NW Caribbean Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning
in effect for the western and central Atlantic.

West of 65W, a cold front extends from 32N67W to W Cuba. Gale
force winds are north of 28N on either side of the front. Strong
to near gale winds are noted elsewhere west of the front, and
within 330 nm east of the front north of 25N. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail south of 25N. Seas 12 ft or greater are north of
28N between 67W and 78W, with seas to 20 ft. Elsewhere N of 25N,
seas are in the 7-12 ft range, while 4-6 ft seas are noted over
the forecast waters S of 25N.

For the forecast west of 65W, the strong front will move quickly
while the associated low pressure intensifies north of the
forecast area. The front will reach from 31N59W to eastern Cuba
by tonight and from 21N65W to Hispaniola by Fri afternoon. Gale
conditions associated with this system are expected through early
Fri, mainly N of 27N with near gale-force winds reaching 25N.
Winds will diminish Fri and seas should subside by Sun. The next
cold front may move off the SE U.S.coast early Mon with fresh to
strong winds off the Florida coast.

East of 65W, fresh to strong winds prevail N of 25N between 59W
and 65W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of 20N, with
moderate to fresh winds south of 20N. Seas are in the 8-12 ft
range N of 27N, and 6-8 ft elsewhere east of 60W.

$$
AL
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