[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270920
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast tonight while the associated low pressure rapidly
intensifies north of the forecast area. Gale force winds and very
large seas, up to around 30 ft near 31N55W, are expected with
this system tonight through Thu night, mainly N of 27N. Winds
should diminish by Fri and seas should subside by Sun.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure N of the Caribbean Sea
combined with the Colombian low will support minimal gale force
winds near the northern Colombian coast through early this
morning. Seas are currently peaking at 12-14 ft in the area of
gale force winds. Gale conditions are possible again Fri night and
Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front currently
located over the NW Gulf will continue to linger across the region
through the next few hours. A reinforcing cold front will reach
the stationary front by sunrise and the combined front will
quickly move southeastward across the basin through Thu. Fresh to
strong N winds will follow the front, with frequent gusts to gale
force offshore of Brownsville in the coastal waters beginning
around sunrise today. Sustained gales will develop over the
west-central Gulf this afternoon, and over SW Gulf tonight
through Thu. Winds and seas will diminish on Fri. Seas will peak
around 11-12 ft during this event. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The outlook period for the next 24
hours consists of the persistence of SW near gale or gale in
Irving. Please read the latest Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at
the website
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2058.2
620584460044.html for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 02N29W to 02N40W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted roughly
from the equator to 07N between 23W and the coast of Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-12N between 42W-
49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front.

Ahead of the upcoming cold front, a stationary lingers from near
SW Louisiana to along/parallel of the Texas coastal/offshore
waters boundary to 1008 mb low pressure southeast of Veracruz,
Mexico near 21N96W. Earlier observations indicated an area of
moderate to fresh winds in the central Gulf between 87W-90W where
there is a locally tight pressure gradient, with gentle to
moderate southerly return flow elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
area of moderate to fresh winds, and mainly 2-4 ft elsewhere.

Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to less than 1 nm are
possible across most of the U.S. coastal waters through early
morning.

In the wake of the upcoming strong cold front, winds will begin to
veer by the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure
slides from over the southern Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas.
Return S winds should begin increasing over the W Gulf on Fri
evening ahead of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by
Sun. That next front is forecast to approach the SE Gulf by the
end of the weekend/early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for near the NW coast of Colombia in the south-
central Caribbean Sea.

A weakening stationary front extends from the Tropical N Atlantic
to south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, terminating just
south of the Mona Passage. Isolated to scattered showers are noted
on either side of this boundary, continuing westward on the
trades. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are noted in the NW Caribbean
west of 85W including the Gulf of Honduras along with 5-7 ft
seas. Fresh to strong trades are noted in the central Caribbean
around the area of gale force winds along with 7-11 ft seas, with
moderate to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean.

A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Thu. Behind
the front, fresh to strong NE winds can be expected over the NW
Caribbean waters Fri and through the Atlantic passages Fri
afternoon through Sat. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean passages and Tropical N Atlantic waters through the
weekend, with the largest swell expected Sun and Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in effect for the SW N Atlantic into the central Atlantic,
and on a Gale Outlook for the eastern Atlantic in the Meteo-France
area.

High pressure of 1020 mb is noted near 24N62W with a ridge axis
extending west-northwest across the northern Bahamas to near Lake
Okeechobee, Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted
from 22N-27N east of the Bahamas to 55W, with moderate to fresh
NE-E trades south of 22N, and moderate to fresh S-SW flow N of
27N. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft outside the Bahamas to 65W.

To the east, a stationary front extends from near 32N33W to 20N52W
to the NE Caribbean. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
near this boundary. A cold front is bending along 31N between
50W-56W with a ridge of high pressure south of it from the high
near 24N62W. An area of fresh to strong SW-W winds is noted north
of 29N between 30W-65W, while large mixed northerly swell of 8-15
ft dominates the open waters east of 65W.

The high and ridge will weaken and retreat as the strong cold
front mentioned above rapidly impacts the basin tonight through
the end of the week. High pressure will build in behind the front
for the start of the weekend, becoming centered near Bermuda by
early Mon as the next cold front begins to move off the SE U.S.
coast.

$$
Lewitsky
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