[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The 30-hour forecast, starting at 27/0000 UTC, consists of a
cold front along 31N79W 29.5N81W. Expect W-to-NW gale-force
winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within
the area that is bounded by the points, from 30.5N77W to 30N78W
to 30N79.5W to 31N80.5W to 31N76.5W to 30.5N77W.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet
to 14 feet, are imminent, in the area that is off the coast of
Colombia, within the following points: from 11N74W to 11N76W to
12N76W to 12N74W to 11N74W. Please, read the latest NWS High
Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the
website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The 12-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 30N92W
23N97W.5W. Expect NW-to-N winds 20 to 30 knots, and sea heights
less than 8 feet, within the area that is bounded by the points:
26N96W 26N97W 28N97W 29N95W 28N94W 26N96W. Expect, also,
frequent gusts to 40 kn. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 knots within 60 nm
of the shore. Expect N gale-force winds about 6 hours later.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details
about each section.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR METEO-FRANCE...

The outlook period, for the next 24 hours after the initial
forecast period, consists of: the persistence of SW near gale or
gale, in IRVING. Please, refer to the following website,
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2058.2
620584460044.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 07N11W, to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W,
to 05N20W, 02N27W, and to 02N40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the 07N southward
between 30W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 07N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE
Louisiana, to the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas, to
a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 21N96W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rainshowers, are within 180 nm of the land in the Gulf
of Mexico, and from 27N northward from 70W westward in the
Atlantic Ocean.

Areas of dense fog with visibilities reduced to 1 nm or less is
possible across the coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico through
the early morning hours, as well as interior locations ahead or
to the east-southeast of the stationary front.

A surface ridge passes through Grand Bahama and the Abaco
Islands in the NW part of the Bahamas, across Florida, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, to 21N94W.

The current stationary front, that is in the NW Gulf of Mexico,
will continue to linger across the region through tonight. A
reinforcing cold front will reach the stationary front by
Wednesday morning. The combined front will move quickly
southeastward across the basin through Thursday. Fresh to strong
N winds will follow the front, with gale-force winds developing
in
the west central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, and in the SW Gulf
of Mexico from late Wednesday through Thursday. The wind speeds
and the sea heights will diminish on Friday. Return S winds
should begin building in the W Gulf of Mexico on Friday evening,
in advance of the next cold front moving off the Texas coast by
Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front passes through 19N56W in the Atlantic
Ocean, to 18N60W and 17N69W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the
front.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
Colombia just off the border with Panama, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and
isolated moderate precipitation are moving with the
surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure to the N of the Caribbean Sea, combined with the
surface low pressure in Colombia, will support minimal
gale-force winds near the northern coast of Colombia from
tonight through early Wednesday morning. Gale-force wind
conditions are possible again on Friday night and on Saturday
night. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras through early Wednesday. A weakening cold front to the
south of Puerto Rico will dissipate tonight. A strong cold front
will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Fresh-to-strong NE
winds behind the front are expected in the NW Caribbean Sea on
Friday, and through the Atlantic Ocean passages from Friday
afternoon through Saturday. N swell will propagate into the NE
Caribbean Sea passages, and in the Tropical North Atlantic
Ocean, through the weekend, with the largest swell expected on
Sunday and Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N33W to 26N40W, 21N50W, to 19N56W.
The front is dissipating cold from 19N56W to 18N60W and 17N69W.
The front continues as stationary, to SE Texas. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate,
are within 60 nm on either side of the front.

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 25N62W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west of
the frontal boundary. A surface ridge is along 22N38W beyond
32N20W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from the frontal boundary eastward.

A current surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb high pressure
center that is near 25N62W. A strong cold front will move off
the SE U.S.A. coast on Wednesday night, while the associated low
pressure center intensifies rapidly to the north of the forecast
area. Gale-force winds and very large seas are expected with
this system, from Wednesday night through Thursday night, mainly
N of 27N. The wind speeds should diminish by Friday, and the sea
heights should subside by Sunday. It is possible that the next
cold front may move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Sunday night.

$$
mt/jl
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