[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Local
overnight land breeze influences will allow these winds to pulse
to gale force tonight along the coast of Colombia, mainly within
90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla. The high
pressure weakens by Fri night, but will be strong enough to
support additional gales in this area late Fri night into early
Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast,
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N15W,
continuing to 04N20W where it transitions to the ITCZ that
continues along 03N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 04N52W.
A cluster of moderate to strong convection and scattered tstms is
off the coast of W Africa from 02N to 07N between 10W and 19W.
Latest scatterometer data show gust to gale force winds in the
region of strongest convection. Otherwise, scattered moderate
convection is from 02N to 05N between 32W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

With little support aloft, a weak stationary front is over the NW
gulf extending from 29N95W to inland NE Mexico near 25N97W.
Shallow moisture associated with this frontal boundary continues
to favor patchy fog over Texas coastal waters. Surface high
pressure anchored over SW Florida adjacent waters provides light
to gentle return flow across the basin, except for locally
moderate southerly flow ahead of the stationary front.

High pressure over the southeast Gulf will shift eastward into
the SW N Atlantic waters tonight. Associated surface ridge will
extend into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a cold front
moving into the northern Gulf by late Fri. The front will stall
across the northern Gulf Fri night, then dissipate through Sat
night. High pressure building north of front over the Carolinas
will support an increase of SE winds and building seas across the
western Gulf Sat into Sun, with strong SE winds possible in the
northwest Gulf by Sun night as low pressure forms over northern
Mexico. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the
high shifts farther east and a weak cold front moves into the
coastal waters of Texas through Mon night. The front will stall
over the NW Gulf and lift northward Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.

Fresh NE winds prevail over the NW Caribbean as strong high
pressure remains N of the area. However, fresh to strong winds
prevails in the SW and portions of the south-central Caribbean due
to lower pressure over NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh
winds are elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong winds over the south-central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
hours off Colombia through the next several nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 27N65W to 26N70W will dissipate tonight.
Another front will move into the waters between Bermuda and
northeast Florida Fri evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening,
along 23N east of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening,
then stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
of this front.

$$
Ramos
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