[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to support strong to near-gale force winds
over the south-central Caribbean through the next couple of
days. Local overnight land breeze influences will allow these
winds to pulse to gale force again tonight along the coast of
Colombia, mainly within 90 nm of the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla. The high pressure weakens by Fri night, but will
be strong enough to support additional gales in this area late
Fri night into early Sat morning. Please refer to the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea near 10N14W,
continuing to 08N17W, and then to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N20W to 03N36W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 00N to 06N between
22W and 30W and off the coast of French Guiana from 05N to 08N
between 47W and 54W. An area of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 15W and 20W.
Scattered showers are found along the remainder of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
from the coast of Texas near 29N96W to the coast of Mexico
25N98W. Farther east, a 1023 mb high pressure is analyzed over
the northeast Gulf near 27N86W. Moderate southwesterly flow is
evident over the northwestern Gulf according to the latest
surface observations. Patchy dense fog remains along the Texas
coast as a result of moist onshore flow. Farther south, the
scatterometer pass indicates moderate E winds over the Bay of
Campeche, between the 1023 mb high pressure and a small trough
near Veracruz. Seas are estimated to be 3 to 5 ft in the SW Gulf.
Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere, with 2 to 4 ft seas,
except 3 ft or less over the northeast Gulf. Aside from the
patchy dense fog along the Texas coast, no significant weather
is observed.

Looking ahead, the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will
shift southeast today to the Bahamas. The associated surface
ridge will move into the southern Gulf through Fri ahead of a
cold front moving into the northern Gulf later on Fri. The front
will stall across the northern Gulf Fri night, and then
dissipate through Sat night. High pressure building north of
front over the Carolinas will support increasing SE winds and
building seas across the western Gulf Sat into Sun. Strong SE
winds are possible in the northwest Gulf by Sun night as low
pressure forms over northern Mexico. Winds and seas will
diminish across the Gulf into Mon as the high shifts farther east
and a weak cold front moves into the coastal waters of Texas
through Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warning in effect off the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer data shows generally fresh NE winds across
the western Caribbean, with an area of strong NE to ENE winds
from the coast of Colombia to 15N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the
Caribbean, except for 7 to 11 ft in the area under a Gale
Warning. Moderate trade winds persist over the eastern Caribbean.
No significant precipitation is observed at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong winds over the south central
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight
hours off Colombia through the next several nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A southward moving cold front is located from 32N56W to 29N75W.
Fresh to strong winds are present behind the cold front between
60W and 67W. Seas in excess 8 ft are noted north of 28N between
35W and 67W. A stationary front extends from 31N48W to 22N71W
near the southeast Bahamas. Fresh N winds were recorded by a
recent scatterometer pass within 90nm north of the stationary
front west of 60W. Scattered moderate convection is present
along this frontal boundary between 48W and 59W. In the eastern
Atlantic, ridging anchored to a 1027 mb high pressure at 29N29W
is inducing fresh NE winds across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Closer to the high pressure center, gentle to moderate winds are
evident. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of a sharp upper
trough from the Canary Islands to the coast of northeast Brazil
is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Atlantic east
of 32W.

For the forecast, the western Atlantic cold front that extends
to 29N75W will move east of 65W tonight. Another front will move
into the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida Fri
evening, reaching along 27N by Sat evening, then along 23N east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands by Sun evening, and finally
stalling along 20N off the coast of the Dominican Republic by
Mon evening. High pressure will build over the area in the wake
of this front.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net