[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Expect gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia, from 10N to
13N between 74W and 78W, from the early morning hours of today
until the mid-morning hours of today. Expect the same conditions
in the same areas in 24 hours to 30 hours. Please, read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W, and to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N20W, to 02N30W and 02N37W. An upper level trough is
along 19N34W 06N43W. A surface trough is along 38W/40W from 08N
southward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong are
to the south and southeast of the line that extends from the
coast of The Western Sahara near 25N, to 24N20W 20N30W 08N45W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1029 mb high
pressure center that is near 31N79W, into the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, through the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front is moving through Texas, through east Texas into
south central Texas. Broken to overcast low level and middle
level clouds are within 200 nm to the east of the coasts of
Texas and Mexico.

A surface trough extends from the north central Yucatan
Peninsula, southwestward, into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds and isolated moderate are within 210 nm to the east and
southeast of the surface trough.

High pressure in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico will
shift eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean through Friday. A
surface trough will form off the west coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night through Wednesday night, supporting brief
pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold front will move into the
northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The front will become
stationary into Saturday night. The western part of the front
will begin to move northward as a warm front from late Saturday
night through Sunday. The rest of the front will dissipate as
Atlantic Ocean high pressure builds westward across the area
through Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in northern Colombia, across
Panama, beyond 08N83W, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Water
vapor satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an
upper level ridge that extends from NE Venezuela to Nicaragua.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from
70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving
with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure, shifting east-southeastward in the western
Atlantic Ocean, is supporting fresh to strong winds and building
seas in the southeast and south central Caribbean Sea. The winds
will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia, mainly
at night, through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northeast
winds also are expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through
Wednesday night. The winds and the seas will diminish from
Thursday through Saturday, as the high pressure weakens,
although strong winds will persist off the coast of Colombia
that could reach near gale-force on Thursday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1029 mb high
pressure center that is near 31N79W, into the NE corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, through the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through 32N50W, to 27N60W, to the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong are from 24N
northward from 70W eastward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that
is near 31N79W, to 30N62W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from the cold front eastward. A 1024 mb high
pressure center is near 28N34W.

The current 24N65W-to-the Turks and Caicos Islands cold front
will dissipate on Wednesday night. A second cold front will move
southward into the Atlantic Ocean between northeastern Florida
and Bermuda by Wednesday night. The main part of this front will
move to the northeast of the area on Thursday, leaving a
trailing stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by Thursday
evening. This front will be followed by a third cold front, that
will move southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE
Florida late on Friday. The third cold front will reach from
31N60W to 27N70W and to West Palm Beach in Florida on Saturday
night, then begin to weaken as it reaches the far southern
waters late on Sunday. High pressure will build into the area in
the wake of this front.

$$
mt/ec
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