[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure will remain due north of
the area through the end of the week and will continue to support
strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean
through Thu. Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these
winds to pulse to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of
Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 05N16W. A segment of the ITCZ continues from 05N16W to
03N38W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending
from 08N40W to 01N40W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N40W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is located under the southwestern flank of a
1029 mb high pressure centered at 31N83W along the FL/GA border.
Buoy, platform, and ship observations indicate moderate to fresh
E to SE winds over the south through western portions of the Gulf,
south of 26N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle E to SE
winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf where seas are 3 ft
or less. No significant convection is observed.

High pressure extending westward over the north central Gulf will
shift eastward into the western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to
strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf between the
high pressure and low pressure over Texas has diminished today.
These winds will further diminish by Wed. A trough will form off
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed
night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds. A cold
front will move over the northern Gulf Sat and become stationary
into Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Please see the Special
Features section above for more details.

High pressure centered north of the area over the southeastern US
is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
across the Caribbean west of 70W, except for strong to near gale
force winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia with 8 to 12 ft
seas. Scattered showers persist just off the coast of Belize in
the NW Caribbean. Isolated showers are noted from Jamaica across
Hispaniola and into the western Atlantic.

Winds will continue to pulse to gale force off the coast of
Colombia each night through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast
winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wed
night. Winds and seas diminish Thu through Sat as the high
pressure weakens, although strong winds will persist off Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W: A cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N66W, where it
transitions to a stationary front that continues through the
Turks and Caicos Islands to the NE coast of Cuba. Midday
scatterometer data indicate fresh NE winds over the southeastern
Bahama west of the front to 77W, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to
moderate winds are evident elsewhere north of 25N to 31N with 4 to
8 ft seas in open waters.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate Wed night. The next
cold front will move southward into waters between northeastern
Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main portion of this front
will lift to the northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing
stationary segment to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This front
will be followed by yet another cold front that will move
southward across the waters between Bermuda and NE Florida late
Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the NW Bahamas by late
Sat.

Farther east, the aforementioned ridge is supporting gentle to
moderate winds north of 22N and moderate to fresh trade winds
south of 22N. Seas are 8 to 11 ft over much of the Atlantic
mostly in NW to N swell. A sharp upper-level trough reaches from
near the Cabo Verde Islands to the mouth of the Amazon River Basin.
Divergence aloft on the southeast side of this trough along with
trade wind convergence is supporting scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 02N to 09N between 20W and 40W.

$$
Stripling
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