[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 03N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W.
A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ extending from 07N34W
to 03N36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 08N between 16W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 30N87W,
and extends a broad ridge to the SE and to the NW. Dry and
stable conditions prevail across the basin. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, while
moderate to fresh southeast to south winds prevail north of
21N and west of 94W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas
of 2 to 3 ft prevail.

High pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf
through Fri. A cold front will move over the northern Gulf Sat
and become stationary into Sat night. Fresh to strong southerly
return flow will set up over the NW Gulf today between
the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
Mexico. These winds will diminish by Wed. A trough will form
off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through
Wed night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail
across the basin. Strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted off
of Colombia outside of the gale area. Scattered showers are noted
over the northwest Caribbean.

High pressure building over the western Atlantic in will bring
increasing winds and building seas over the southeast and south-
central Caribbean, with winds pulsing to gale force off the
coast of Colombia at night through Wed night. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba
tonight through Wed night, diminishing to mainly fresh speeds
Thu and to gentle to moderate speeds Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N64W to 22N73W. Scattered showers
are noted within the front. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are
evident ahead of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and
west of 63W with 5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to
strong westerly flow is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N
between 70W to 80W.
Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic, anchored by
a
1030 mb high centered near 34N15W. The pressure gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic south of 25N where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.

The cold front will stall from 25N65W into Wed, then dissipate
Wed night. Another cold front will move southward into waters
between northeastern Florida and Bermuda by Wed night. The main
portion of this front will lift to the northeast of the area
Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment to dissipate along
27N by late Thu. This front will be followed by yet another cold
front that will move southward across the waters between Bermuda
and NE Florida late Fri, and reach from near 31N60W to near the
NW Bahamas by late Sat.

$$

ERA
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