[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182330
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 18 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure building north of the area
will continue to support strong to near gale force winds over
the south-central Caribbean through the middle of the week.
Nocturnal pressure fluctuations will cause these winds to pulse
to gale force within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia, mainly
between Cartagena and Barranquilla. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across equatorial Africa to the coast
of Sierra Leone near 07N13W. The ITCZ continues from 07N13W to
02N34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 11W
and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 26.5N88W,
and generally extends a broad ridge to the SE and to the NW. Dry
and stable conditions prevail over most of the Gulf. Scattered
showers are along and just east of a coastal trough along the
Mexican coast from near Cabo Rojo to Veracruz. Light to gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail across most of the basin, while
moderate to fresh southeast to south winds have developed this
afternoon across west portions north of 21N and west of 94W, where
seas are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere buoy, ship and altimeter data also
indicate seas of 2 to 3 ft.

High pressure over the Gulf will shift eastward across the
northeastern Gulf through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return
flow will set up over the entire NW Gulf tonight into Tue between
the high pressure and lower pressure farther west over northeast
Mexico. These winds will diminish some by Wed. A trough will form
off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed
night, supporting brief pulses of fresh to strong winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There is a gale warning in effect for the south-central
Caribbean. Please see the Special Features section above for
more details.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted over the
northwest Caribbean, to the north of an old frontal trough
extending from the western Cayman Islands to the eastern Gulf of
Honduras. Strong winds to 30 kt and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted off
of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing elsewhere
across the southeast and south-central Caribbean, with 5 to 8 ft
seas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present
from 15N to 17.5N between 81W-86W and in the Yucatan Channel.

High pressure will begin to shift over the far western Atlantic
today and increase the pressure gradient across the southeast and
central Caribbean. This will produce increasing winds and
building seas over the southeast and south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force off the coast of Colombia mainly
at night through Thu morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
also expected in the lee of eastern Cuba tonight through Wed
night, diminishing to fresh winds Thu and to gentle to moderate
on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 45W: A weakening cold front extends from near 31N50W to
29N54W where it then continues as a stationary front to 27.5N62W.
A cold front extends from a deepening 1001 mb low near 39N64W
through 31N67W to 23N77W. Scattered showers are ongoing in broad
swath from the Straits of Florida across the northern Bahamas to
beyond 31N60W. Moderate to fresh SE to E winds are evident ahead
of this boundary over the waters north of 25N and west of 63W with
5 to 7 ft seas. West of the front, fresh to strong westerly flow
is noted from the northern Bahamas to 31N between 73W to 81W.

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered over the far eastern Atlantic
near 33N17W, extending W-SW to the southern end of the stationary
front. The pressure gradient to the south is supporting moderate
to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic south of 25N
where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell.

The cold front will become stationary from near 26N65W to 22N71W
and dissipating to eastern Cuba by early Tue. The boundary will
gradually dissipate through early Thu. Another cold front will
move southward into waters between northeastern Florida and
Bermuda Wed night. The main portion of this front will lift to the
northeast of the area Thu, leaving a trailing stationary segment
to dissipate along 27N by late Thu. This will be followed by yet
another front moving southward into the waters between Bermuda and
NE Florida Fri.

$$
Stripling
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