[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jan 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N11W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N36W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 02N to 07N E of 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly wind is across the Gulf of Mexico
behind a a cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to
the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong SW winds
are also in the NE basin ahead of the front. Isolated showers
are occuring over the SE gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and
the Florida Straits.

The front will move eastward across the entire Gulf through
tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting strong NW winds
and building seas over the northeast and north central Gulf
tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front and support generally tranquil marine conditions across
the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will shift east of the
area early next week, allowing winds and seas to increase over
the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high pressure and
lower pressure farther west over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trades are across the eastern and central
Caribean with the strongest winds being over the Colombia
offshore waters. On the far NW Caribbean, the tail of a
stationary front supports scattered to isolated showers over
western Cuba, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters.

A cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move
SE through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves
across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate
through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front
north of the region will support the expansion of fresh to
strong trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover
most of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun
through Wed night. This pattern will also support fresh to
strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N58W to 26N72W where it transitions
to a stationary front that passes over the northern Bahamas, the
Straits of Florida to the NW Caribbean. A second front is
farther east extending from 31N50W to 25N65W. Isolated showers
are behind the westernmost front, currently affecting the NW
offshore waters. Scattered showers are ahead of the easternmost
front, N of 24N between 35W and 50W as well as fresh to strong
SW winds within 210 nm east of the boundary. This front will
continue to move over the central Atlc and dissipate late Sat.

Farther east, a 1032 mb high pressure centered near 410 nm SW of
Portugal is supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large
area off the coast of Africa, east of 40E, including the Cape
Verde Islands.

Otherwise, fresh to strong winds are in the NW forecast waters
ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW waters tonight and
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat
morning. The front is forecast to extend from 28N65W to eastern
Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate through Mon.
Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late
Sun night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by
late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.

$$
Ramos
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