[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151746
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jan 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 04N35W to
the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N-10Nbetween 10W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central
Gulf near 25N90W to the east coast of Mexico near 23N98W. An
ASCAT pass at 1432 UTC revealed fresh N winds in the western
half of the basin and gentle to moderate S-SE flow off the
western coast of Florida. Fresh SW winds are noted in buoy data
ahead of the front over the northern Gulf. Radar as of 1600 UTC
shows showers and thunderstorms east of the front, off the coast
of Florida near 30N84W. Isolated showers are also ahead and
within 50 nm of the front in the central Gulf. Seas range from 4
to 8 ft behind the front. Farther south, a stationary front
reaches from the Straits of Florida to the western Caribbean
Sea.

The cold front from the will move eastward across the entire
Gulf through tonight, with reinforcing cold air supporting
strong NW winds and building seas over the northeast and north
central Gulf tonight through Sat. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front and support generally tranquil marine
conditions across the basin Sun into Mon. The high pressure will
shift east of the area early next week, allowing winds and seas
to increase over the northwest Gulf Mon and Tue between the high
pressure and lower pressure farther west over Texas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
coast of NW Cuba, and into the western Caribbean. Showers are
along the front due to light, moist southerly flow overrunning
the frontal boundary. A weak surface trough is noted from the
NE coast of Cuba to 15N82W supporting light showers in the NW
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the entire basin
with the exception of just off the coast of Colombia where fresh
to strong trade winds are noted along with seas ranging from 6-9
ft.

The cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico will move SE
through the Yucatan Channel tonight, then weaken as it moves
across the northwest Caribbean Sat. The front will stall from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat night, then dissipate
through Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front
north of the region will support expansion of fresh to strong
trade winds and building seas from off Colombia to cover most
of the south-central and southwest Caribbean from Sun through
Tue night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE
winds in the lee of Cuba by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The stationary front across the Caribbean and the Straits of
Florida extends to 27N64W, where it transitions to a cold front
to 32N58W. A secondary cold front extends from 32N65W to 28N71W.
This front is associated with a rapidly intensifying 995 mb
developing storm center northeast of Bermuda. Recent
scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong SW-W wind along and
just ahead of the cold front north of 27N, with seas reaching 10
ft. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted west
of 55W.

Farther east, a 1034 mb high pressure center near Madeira is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds over a large area off the
coast of Africa, east of 40E and south of the Canary Islands.

The cold front sweeping eastward over the waters north of 27N
will reinforce the weak stationary front. The merged front will
continue eastward and move east of 65W late today. The next
cold front will enter the NW waters tonight and reach from
31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning,
from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and
dissipate through Mon. Meanwhile, another front will move off
the NE Florida coast late Sun night, move east and reach from
Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, and stall from 24N65W to
eastern Cuba by late Tue.

$$
Mora
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