[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from
05N22W, to 03N30W and 02N41W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is in the coastal plains of Texas, from the upper
Texas Gulf coast to lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, and into
northern Mexico. Precipitation: clouds and possible
precipitation are developing within 240 nm to the southeast of
the cold front.

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
coast of NW Cuba, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, that cover the area from 25N southward from 90W
eastward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 25N90W.

High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will weaken and
drift E tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico early on Friday, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to
22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz on Friday afternoon.
Reinforcing cold air with increased winds behind the front will
prevail in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night and
Saturday, while the front weakens and moves SE of the basin.
High pressure and generally tranquil marine conditions will
prevail in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Fresh to
strong southerly wind flow and building seas are expected in the
NE Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, in advance of the next cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through the Straits of Florida, to the
coast of NW Cuba, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
isolated moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to the
NW of the line that runs from SE Cuba to NE Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in northern
Colombia and 83W in western Panama.
Water vapor satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show
an upper level ridge that extends from NE Venezuela beyond the
Nicaragua. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 14N
southward from 70W westward.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and
isolated moderate rainshowers, span the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving
with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

Trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish gradually
through Friday, as high pressure to the north of the region
shifts eastward. A weak cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean Sea on Friday night, then gradually it will stall and
dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sunday.
High pressure will build to the north of the region from Monday
night through Tuesday, and strengthen the winds across the
entire basin. Gale-force winds will be possible along the
Colombian coast on Monday night and Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through Bermuda, to 28N70W, through
the Bahamas near 25N77W and Andros Island, through the Straits
of Florida, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. A cold front is about
150 nm to the northwest of the stationary front. A cold
front/stationary front is along 31N/32N between 36W and 64W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 27N
northward between 27W and 36W. Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong is from 28N northward between 50W and 60W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other possible
rainshowers are elsewhere, from 17N northward from 56W westward.

A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure center that
is near 36N17W, through 32N27W to 28N36W, to 28N51W, and to
25N69W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean, from 12N northward from the stationary front eastward.

The current cold front, that is moving eastward in the waters
that are to the north of 27N, is reinforcing a weak stationary
front that extends from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida. The
merged front will continue eastward, and move to the east of 65W
on Friday. The next cold front will enter the NW waters on
Friday night, and reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to
western Cuba on Saturday morning, from 28N65W to eastern Cuba on
Sunday morning, then stall and dissipate through Monday.
Meanwhile, another front will move off the NE Florida coast late
on Sunday night, move east and reach from Bermuda to central
Cuba by late Monday, and stall from 24N65W to the Windward
Passage by late Tuesday.

$$
mt/ec
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