[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 07N11W
to 05N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N19W to 03N40W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 07N E of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level water vapor imagery show a plume of air advecting
moisture from the E Pacific tropical waters to the SW and SE Gulf
of Mexico, which is supporting the cloudiness over this region of
the basin. Shallow moisture associated with the tail end of a
dissipating stationary front may support some isolated showers
tonight in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel.
Otherwise, surface high pressure prevails basin-wide anchored by a
1019 mb high near 24N91W, which provides mainly light to gentle
variable wind flow. Over the NW basin, moderate to fresh SW winds
are ahead of the next cold front.

The center of high pressure over the central Gulf will weaken and
drift E tonight. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf
early Fri, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W to
southern Mexico south of Veracruz Fri afternoon. Reinforcing cold
air with increase winds behind the front will prevail across the
northern Gulf Fri night and Sat while the front weakens and sinks
SE of the basin. High pressure and generally tranquil marine
conditions will prevail over the Gulf Sun and Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle to upper level ridge supports generally fair weather
across most of the basin this evening with some isolated showers
over the NW Caribbean being supported by shallow moisture
associated with a dissipating stationary front that extends
across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel.

Trade winds across the central Caribbean will gradually diminish
through Fri as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward.
A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Fri night, then
gradually stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Sun. High pressure will build north of the region Mon
night through Tue and strengthen winds across the entire basin,
with gale force winds possible along the Colombian coast Mon night
and and Tue night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front from 31N64W across the northern
Bahamas to the north central coast of Cuba will gradually be
overtaken by a cold front currently extending from 31N72W to
27N76W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind the stationary
front N of 27N along with scattered showers and isolated tstms
between 63W and 67W.

The front will sweep eastward and move east of 65W Fri.
A second cold front will enter the NW waters Fri night and reach
from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Sat morning,
from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun morning, then stall and dissipate
through Mon.

Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the remainder basin and
supports NE to E fresh to strong winds over W Africa adjacent
waters, including the Cape Verde Islands.

$$
Ramos
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