[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W,
to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N29W to 02N40W.
Isolated showers are within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, and elsewhere from 10N southward and 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 25N80W in the Straits of
Florida to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated
showers are along the frontal boundary.

A surface trough extends from 21N95W in the SW part of the Gulf of
Mexico across the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are from
24N southward and 87W westward.

A 1021 mb high is centered near 24N95W. Surface anticyclonic wind
flow covers most the Gulf of Mexico in association with this high
pressure center.

A cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Friday, and extend
from the Florida Big Bend to 22N95W to southern Mexico south of
Veracruz Friday evening. Reinforcing cold air will increase winds
behind the front in the northern Gulf Friday night and Saturday
while the front weakens and sinks SE of the basin. High pressure
will prevail over the Gulf Sunday and Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW Caribbean Sea,
across the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are in the NW part
of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia and 83W in western Panama. Isolated showers span the
rest of the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and showers are moving with
the low level easterly trade wind flow.

Trade winds across the central Caribbean will gradually diminish
through Friday as high pressure north of the region shifts
eastward. A weak cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Friday
night, then stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 25N80W. Scattered
moderate showers are from 180 nm to 300 nm NW of the stationary
front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and ebedded showers
are elsewhere northwest of the front.

A surface trough is along 32N40W to 26N50W to 21N67W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is north of 24N between 40W
and 52W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean east of 40W, north of 20N.

The stationary front will dissipate later today. A cold front
moving off northern Florida late Friday will increase SW winds
ahead of the front, north of the Bahamas. The cold front will
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba Saturday
morning, from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Sunday morning, then stall
and dissipate through Monday.

$$
Mundell
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