[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Liberia near 06N10W, to 05N17W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N17W, 05N19W, to 02N31W, and 02N40W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is within
360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W and 40W. Isolated
moderate is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the rest
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and elsewhere from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through 28N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
to 25N80W, through the Straits of Florida, to the NE corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in
the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward.

A surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula,  to 24N95W in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate from 24N southward from 87W westward.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from the 1022
mb high pressure center, eastward, and in the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico from 90W eastward.

The wind speeds near the coast of Mexico will weaken overnight.
A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico early on
Friday. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to
22N95W to southern Mexico south of Veracruz on Friday evening.
Reinforcing cold air will increase the winds behind the front in
the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday night and Saturday, as the
front weakens and sinks SE of the basin. High pressure will be
centered in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 17N86W in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula,  to 24N95W in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated
moderate in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N between 74W in northern
Colombia and 83W in western Panama. An upper level ridge extends
from NE Venezuela beyond the Yucatan Channel. Precipitation:
Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and
isolated moderate rainshowers span the rest of the Caribbean
Sea. The clouds and isolated moderate precipitation are moving
with the surface-to-low level wind flow.

High pressure centered SE of Bermuda will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea overnight,
then diminish gradually on Thursday and Friday, as the high
pressure shifts eastward. A weakening cold front will enter the
NW Caribbean Sea on Friday night, then stall and dissipate from
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras, through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N63W, to 28N70W, to 25N80W,
to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 180 nm to
300 nm to the NW of the stationary front. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other possible rainshowers are
elsewhere to the northwest of the stationary front. Scattered
moderate to strong is from 30N northward between 50W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 32N40W 26N50W 23N60W to 21N67W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 24N northward between 40W and 55W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean,
to the northwest of the stationary front. A 1019 mb high
pressure center is near 32N78W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N24W to 30N32W, 27N37W, 23N42W,
and to 19N58W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward from the 32N40W 21N67W surface
trough, eastward.

The current stationary front, from 31N64W across the northern
Bahamas to the northern coast of Cuba, will stall and dissipate
overnight. A cold front moving into the N Florida waters late
Friday will increase SW winds to the north of the Bahamas ahead
of the front, and shift eastward ahead of it. The front will
reach from 31N75W across the NW Bahamas to W Cuba on Saturday
morning, and from 27N65W to E Cuba on Sunday morning, before
stalling and dissipating.

$$
mt/dm
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