[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A low pressure system moving off
the South Texas coast into the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
evening and tonight will produce gale force winds. The low will
gradually weaken as it moves across the northern Gulf into the
Florida Big Bend area through Tue. The trailing cold front will
reach from the Mississippi Delta to near Veracruz, Mexico by
early Mon morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow
the front, reaching gale force first near Tampico, Mexico early
Mon morning, and then near Veracruz, Mexico early Mon afternoon.
Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected tonight across
the U.S. coastal waters from Lake Charles, LA to Brownsville,
Texas the low pressure moves across the NW Gulf. Seas are
forecast to build to 12-13 ft with this gale event. The cold
front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of
Campeche on Tue, move across the SE Gulf on Wed, and exit the
area by Wed night. Showers with embedded thunderstorms will be
associated with the low pressure and front. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian/Panamanian low will
support strong to minimal gale force winds within about 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia tonight through early Tue morning. Seas
are forecast to build to 13-14 ft Mon night into Tue. The high
pressure will weaken on Tue as it shifts eastward across the
central Atlantic allowing for these winds to diminish below gale
force. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border and continues SW to 06N20W to 02N30W. The
ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-06N between
11W-20W, and from 02N-06N along and north of the ITCZ mainly
between 20W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A developing low pressure system and the associated cold front
will produce gale force winds across the western Gulf of Mexico.
Please, see the Special Features section above for details.

High pressure over the SE CONUS extends a ridge across the
eastern half of the Gulf and the State of Florida producing
gentle to moderate NE-E winds. Winds and seas are on increase
over the western half of the Gulf due to the presence of a
developing low pressure system and a cold front. Abundant
cloudiness with embedded areas of showers dominates most of the
Gulf waters, including also the Straits of Florida and the
Yucatan Channel.

A trough will develop across the western Gulf on Tue. The
pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico will
support fresh to strong northerly winds S of 26N and W of 96W on
Tue. These conditions will persist on Wed, with seas building to
8 or 9 ft. On this day, the strongest winds of 25-30 kt are
expected near the Veracruz area. Looking ahead, another cold
front will move into the northern Gulf by Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect near the coast of Colombia. Please,
see the Special Features section for more information.

The most recent satellite-derived wind data provided observations
of fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean and
mainly moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the east
and central parts of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds
dominates the NW caribbean. The aerial extent of the fresh to
strong trade winds will increase tonight covering most of the
central Caribbean. Strong to minimal gale force winds could occur
near the coast of Colombia. In addition, fresh NE winds are
expected in the Windward Passage and in the lee of eastern Cuba.
On Mon, expect also fresh to strong winds over most of the
eastern Caribbean. These winds will be the result of the pressure
gradient between high pressure N of the area, over the western
Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low.

A stationary front extends across the Windward Passage to just
east of Jamaica. This front will dissipate tonight. Convection
over the SW Caribbean has diminished during the last few hours.
A diffluent pattern aloft was helping to induce this convective
activity.

A weakening cold front is expected to move into the northwestern
Caribbean Wed, then become stationary from west-central Cuba to
the northwestern Caribbean and dissipate by early Thu as high
pressure builds from the Gulf of Mexico southeastward across the
northwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N54W and extends
SW to 24N65W where it becomes stationary to the Windward Passage.
Isolated to scattered showers are ahead of the front N of 27N.
the southern portion of the front will drift SE and dissipate
through early Mon. Another cold front is expected to move off
the Florida coast Wed, then weaken as it reaches from Bermuda to
western Cuba by late Thu. Winds and seas will increase Fri off
northeast Florida ahead of another front expected to move off the
coast by Fri night.

The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge,
anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure located S of the Azores near
32N28W. Fresh to strong trade winds are noted based on latest
scatterometer data N of the monsoon trough to about to 26N and E
of 40W. These winds will persist on Mon.

$$
GR
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