[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101734
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Frequent gusts of strong to gale
force winds are expected tonight over portions of the NW Gulf of
Mexico in association with developing low pressure system and
its associated cold front. As the front moves across the basin,
gale force north winds are expected behind the front south of
24N and west of 95W beginning on early Mon. These conditions
will translate from offshore Tampico Mon morning to offshore
Veracruz on Mon afternoon. Wave heights over this area will
build to 10-13 ft. Winds and seas will diminish by late Mon.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between
strong western Atlantic high and lower pressure over South
America will result in strong to gale force northeast to east
winds along and to within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Mon
night into early Tue. Wave heights will be in the range of 9-14
ft in this area. The high pressure will weaken on Tue as it
shifts east- southeastward across the central Atlantic allowing
for these winds to diminish below gale force. Wave heights will
slightly subside by late Tue.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 05N19W, then
transitions to the ITCZ from that point to the coast of Brazil
at 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
north of the ITCZ mainly between 20W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. See
the Special Features section above for details.

Surface ridging and associated dry and stable conditions
are present over the eastern and central sections of the Gulf.
Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
moving over the NW Gulf as upper-level divergence east of a
shortwave trough begins to infiltrate the area. Fresh to strong
east to southeast winds are noted in scatterometer data over the
western half of the basin, while gentle easterly winds prevail
over the eastern half. Wave heights over the NW Gulf will build
to 10 ft within the gale area.

Low pressure over southern Texas will deepen as it
moves into the far northwest Gulf today, then weaken as
it moves across the northern Gulf into the Florida Big Bend area
through Tue. Northerly winds following a trailing cold front
will reach gale force over the western Gulf this evening and
tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms across the northern
Gulf through tonight as well. Winds and seas will diminish
through mid week as the front moves east of the basin followed
by high pressure building across the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage
to 17N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 200 nm
southeast of the front. At the same time, increasing clusters of
moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to the
southwestern Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most
of the basin, and fresh to strong winds within 90 nm north of
the Colombian coastline.

The stationary front will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong
trades over much of the central Caribbean will continue through
late Wed night, then diminish to mainly fresh speeds through Thu
night. Northeast to east trades will reach gale force speeds
along and near the coast of Colombia on Mon night. A weakening
cold front is expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean
on Tue, then become stationary from west- central Cuba to the
northwestern Caribbean late Tue into Wed and dissipate by early
Thu as high pressure builds from the Gulf of Mexico
southeastward across the northwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 20N72W. Scattered showers
along the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong south to southwest winds north of 29N and east of the
front to near 50W and fresh to strong winds north of 29N west of
the front to 68W. Related wave heights are in the range of 9-12
ft. Surface ridge prevails to the east of this front anchored by
a 1033 mb high center located at 32N27W. Latest scatterometer
data depicts an extensive area of fresh to strong northeast to
east trades that covers the Atlantic waters south of a line from
25N35W to 20N45W to 15N61W. Wave heights generated by these
persistent winds are in the range of 8-11 ft.

The cold front over the west-central Atlantic will continue
moving east while weakening. Another cold front is expected to
move east of the Florida coast on Tue. It will begin to weaken
as it reaches from near 31N68W to 26N72W and to central Cuba Wed
afternoon, then move east of the area by early Thu. Yet another
cold front will move across the NW part of the area on Thu.

$$

ERA
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